What The Stats Say: Opta reveals strength of Man City defence

Pep Guardiola.
Manchester City are leading the way in the Premier League when it comes to clean sheets.

Dan Fitch crunches Opta's numbers to bring you a tip for every Premier League game this weekend and he's impressed by Manchester City's defensive statistics.

“Man City have won each of their last four Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 11 in the competition. No side has kept more Premier League clean sheets this season than the Citizens (8).”

With Manchester City’s defence now performing better than their attack, backing the hosts to win to nil at 1.834/5 seems the obvious bet.

Wolves will claim win

Wolves 1.664/6 v West Brom 7.413/2; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 16 January, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"After netting five goals in their first three league games this season, West Brom have netted just six in their last 14, and never more than once in a match in that time."

Wolves have not been in great form of late, but should claim a victory here and are 2.47/5 to win to nil.

Leeds are value

Leeds 2.226/5 v Brighton 3.55/2; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 16 January, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leeds are looking to win three consecutive home games in the Premier League for the first time since a run of five between April-August 2001 under David O'Leary."

Brighton have now gone nine games without a win in the Premier League (D5 L4) and Leeds look good value to inflict another defeat at 2.226/5.

Burnley will keep it tight

West Ham 1.910/11 v Burnley 5.14/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 16 January, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"West Ham have scored in 14 of their 17 Premier League games this season, with only Liverpool (15) finding the net more often so far this term. However, having netted 12 goals in their first six league games this season, the Hammers have scored the same amount in their last 11."

Burnley's defence are back to their best and you can back under 2.5 goals at 1.774/5.

Fulham can surprise favourites

Fulham 7.26/1 v Chelsea 1.564/7; The Draw 4.47/2
Saturday 16 January, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Chelsea have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 23 in the competition (W14 D5)."

Chelsea are much too short here and with Fulham having drawn five consecutive games they could avoid defeat, with the hosts available at 2.727/4 in the Double Chance market.

Low scoring game likely

Leicester 1.9110/11 v Southampton 4.67/2; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 16 January, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Having scored in 12 consecutive Premier League matches between September and December (25 goals scored), Southampton have failed to score in three of their last four league games (1 goal scored)."

The Saints defence has held pretty tight during this period and under 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.01/1.

Spurs start fast

Sheffield United 6.411/2 v Tottenham 1.75/7; The Draw 3.9
Sunday 17 January, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"No side has scored more first-half goals than Tottenham in the Premier League this season (19), including a league-high eight goals in the opening 15 minutes of games. Spurs have also shipped fewer goals before half-time than any other Premier League side this term (4)."

With Spurs prone to conceding late equalisers it might make more sense to back them to be leading at the break and they are 2.3411/8 to be winning by half-time.

Draw between top two

Liverpool 2.0421/20 v Manchester United 3.814/5; The Draw 4.03/1
Sunday 17 January, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Liverpool are winless in three Premier League games (D2 L1), failing to score in their last two. They last went four without a win in February 2017 (a run of five), while they've not failed to score in three consecutive league games since March 2005."

With Manchester United in fine form, this could be another draw for Liverpool at 4.03/1, in what seems likely to be a close game whatever the result.

City defence is shining

Manchester City 1.192/11 v Crystal Palace 20.019/1; The Draw 9.08/1
Sunday 17 January, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Man City have won each of their last four Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 11 in the competition. No side has kept more Premier League clean sheets this season than the Citizens (8)."

With Manchester City's defence now performing better than their attack, backing the hosts to win to nil at 1.834/5 seems the obvious bet.

Gunners will repeat result

Arsenal 1.4840/85 v Newcastle 8.27/1; The Draw 4.94/1
Monday 18 January, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal beat Newcastle 2-0 at home in the FA Cup third round on the 9th January this year - if they win here, it will be their shortest gap (9 days) between home victories against the same opponent since January 2008, when they beat Newcastle twice at the Emirates in the space of three days."

The Gunners are conceding far fewer goals these days and this looks like another match in which it makes sense to back the hosts to win to nil, this time at 2.3811/8.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 425.00 pts
Returned: 428.81 pts
P/L: +3.81 pts

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