What The Stats Say: Opta demonstrates Leicester's home improvement

Brendan Rodgers.
Will Brendan Rodgers be celebrating after Leicester's match with Leeds?

Leicester's home form is improving and Dan Fitch thinks that they will beat Leeds, as he previews the weekend Premier League action using Opta statistics.

“Leicester have won their last two Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous seven (W2 D1 L4). The Foxes last had a longer league winning run at the King Power Stadium between August-December 2019 (7).”

With the way that Leeds approach away games, Leicester will be able to play on the break and should win a third consecutive home match at 1.875/6.

Magpies not flying away

Everton 1.618/13 v Newcastle 7.06/1; The Draw 4.1
Saturday 30 January, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Newcastle have lost their last five Premier League away games, failing to score in any of the last four. They last lost six in a row in April 2016 (a run of 9), while they last lost five in a row without scoring in May 2015 - both runs included 0-3 defeats at Everton."

Everton are a little short to back for a straight victory, so take a chance on them winning to nil at 2.56/4.

Palace score early goals

Crystal Palace 3.185/40 v Wolves 2.727/4; The Draw 3.211/5
Saturday 30 January, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Only Tottenham have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games than Crystal Palace this season, with a league-high 29% of the Eagles' goals coming in this timeframe (7/24). Last season, Palace only scored once in the opening 15 minutes."

With Wolves struggling to score goals right now, Palace could be value at 3.814/5 to be leading at half-time.

City defence is reliable

Manchester City 1.152/13 v Sheffield United 26.025/1; The Draw 10.09/1
Saturday 30 January, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

"Manchester City have won their last 11 games in all competitions, conceding just three goals in that run. They've never won 12 in a row in their history, while the last top-flight team to do so was Arsenal between August-October 2007."

No one is playing better than Manchester City in the Premier League right now and they are 1.674/6 to win to nil.

Low scoring relegation battle

West Brom 3.55/2 v Fulham 2.427/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 30 January, 15:00
Live on BBC One

"West Bromwich Albion are averaging just 2.7 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season (54 in 20 games), their lowest rate in a single campaign in the competition."

Fulham also lack a cutting edge and under 2.5 goals looks likely to land at 1.738/11.

Gunners are firing

Arsenal 2.982/1 v Manchester United 2.68/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 30 January, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games (D1), one more than they had in their first 14 this season (W4 D2 L8). The Gunners have netted 14 goals in these six games, two more than they had in their opening 14 (12)."

Manchester United tend to score on the road, so back over 2.5 goals at 1.875/6.

Villa struggling on road

Southampton 3.02/1 v Aston Villa 2.486/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 30 January, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"After winning five of their first seven away league games this season (D1 L1) and keeping five clean sheets in the process, Aston Villa have lost each of their last three on the road, conceding at least twice each time."

Southampton are not playing that well themselves, but given Aston Villa's away form there could be value in backing the hosts to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 1.664/6.

Chelsea's goals have dried up

Chelsea 1.384/11 v Burnley 10.519/2; The Draw 5.59/2
Sunday 31 January, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Chelsea netted 29 goals in their first 14 Premier League games this season (2.1 per game), but have scored just four in their subsequent six (0.7 per game). The Blues haven't netted more than once in these six games, last having a longer league run of failing to score at least twice between October-December 2015 (7)."

Burnley were involved in a five-goal thriller in midweek, but generally their games are low scoring. Under 2.5 goals is 2.26/5.

Leicester value at home

Leicester 1.875/6 v Leeds 4.3100/30; The Draw 4.216/5
Sunday 31 January, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leicester have won their last two Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous seven (W2 D1 L4). The Foxes last had a longer league winning run at the King Power Stadium between August-December 2019 (7)."

With the way that Leeds approach away games, Leicester will be able to play on the break and should win a third consecutive home match at 1.875/6.

Antonio can hurt makeshift Liverpool defence

West Ham 4.67/2 v Liverpool 1.824/5; The Draw 4.216/5
Sunday 31 January, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Michail Antonio has scored more goals against Liverpool in the Premier League than any other player for West Ham (4 in 6 appearances). All four goals have come against Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool."

Liverpool's injury ravaged defence picked up another casualty in midweek when Joel Matip limped off against Spurs. Antonio's pace could be hard for Liverpool to handle and he's 3.211/5 to find the net.

Cautiously back away day specialists

Brighton 3.39/4 v Tottenham 2.47/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Sunday 31 January, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham have lost just one of their last 12 away Premier League games (W6 D5), with that defeat coming at Liverpool in December."

Spurs look likely to be without the injured Harry Kane, so cautiously back them at 1.738/11 Draw No Bet.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

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Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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