What The Stats Say: Chelsea home stat is bad news for Hammers

Frank Lampard.
Will Frank Lampard have the answers when Chelsea host West Ham?

Dan Fitch has picked out ten Premier League bets for the weekend based on Opta Stats and has found that Chelsea scoring at home is ominous for the visitors...

“When scoring at least once, Chelsea have lost just one of their last 38 Premier League home games (W27 D10), with that defeat coming at the hands of Liverpool last season (1-2). The Blues are unbeaten in their last 16 league games in which they’ve scored at Stamford Bridge (W14 D2).”

Both teams have goalscoring potential and a Chelsea win and both teams to score is 2.915/8.

Liverpool struggling on the road

Crystal Palace 6.611/2 v Liverpool 1.564/7; The Draw 4.77/2
Saturday 19 December, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Liverpool are winless in their last five away league games (D4 L1), drawing each of their last four in a row. They last went six matches without a league win on the road in January 2011, while the Reds last drew five such games in succession back in December 1991 under Graeme Souness."

While Liverpool should win this, their away form suggests that they will concede and both teams to score can be backed at 1.784/5.

Saints can score against favourites

Southampton 7.06/1 v Manchester City 1.511/2; The Draw 4.94/1
Saturday 19 December, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"Southampton have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League home games, scoring 16 goals in total in that run. Saints' previous 16 league goals at St Mary's had come over a period of 16 games."

This is another match where both teams to score looks unnaturally big, this time at 1.768/11.

Value with hosts

Everton 2.568/5 v Arsenal 3.02/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 19 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal have won just 14 points from 13 Premier League games this season, their lowest tally at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1974-75 (9 pts - assuming 3pts/win). Indeed, Arsenal have picked up just one win in their last nine Premier League games (W1 D2 L6)."

Considering Arsenal's poor form and the fact that Everton have won their last two matches, it's a big price for the home side. Back them in the Draw No Bet market at 1.845/6.

Newcastle can win again at home

Newcastle 2.77/4 v Fulham 2.962/1; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 19 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Newcastle are without a clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League home games, since beating Sheffield United 3-0 back in June. However, the Magpies have won three of their last five at St James' Park (L2)."

Considering this stat, a home win and both teams to score looks worth a punt at big odds of 5.59/2.

Steer clear from the result

Brighton 1.748/11 v Sheffield United 5.69/2; The Draw 3.9
Sunday 20 December, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Of the ever-present Premier League sides in 2020, Brighton have won the fewest home points this calendar year (10), while Sheffield United have won the fewest on the road (6)."

These statistics suggest it could be best to steer clear of predicting the result. Instead, go for both teams to score at 2.226/5, which is a reliable bet for Brighton.

Spurs will get back to winning ways

Tottenham 2.166/5 v Leicester 3.9; The Draw 3.613/5
Sunday 20 December, 14:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham have won five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Leicester (L2), netting 21 goals across these games."

Spurs really need to get back to winning ways, having failed to claim a victory in their last two games (D1 L1). Back them to do so at 2.166/5.

Home goals a rare commodity

Manchester United 1.758/11 v Leeds 4.84/1; The Draw 4.47/2
Sunday 20 December, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester United haven't scored more than one goal in any of their last seven home Premier League matches - in their top-flight history, they've only gone longer without netting at least twice on one occasion, doing so in eight games between February-April 1920."

With Manchester United struggling to score at Old Trafford, under 3.5 goals could prove to be a safe bet at 1.75/7.

Low scoring derby

West Brom 3.9 v Aston Villa 2.0421/20; The Draw 3.9
Sunday 20 December, 19:15
Live on BT Sport 1

"After netting five goals in their first three Premier League games this season (D1 L2), West Brom have scored just five in their subsequent 10 in the competition (W1 D3 L6), and never more than once in a match in that run."

The new WBA manager Sam Allardyce will be looking to keep things tight and under 2.5 goals looks big at 2.111/10.

Burnley can claim another point

Burnley 3.711/4 v Wolves 2.35/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Monday 21 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Burnley have lost just one of their last six home league games against Wolves (W3 D2), with that coming in the first Premier League meeting between the sides at Turf Moor in March 2010 (1-2)."

Slowly but surely, Wolves are starting to find a little form and that could continue with a draw at 3.39/4.

Chelsea will win entertaining match

Chelsea 1.538/15 v West Ham 6.86/1; The Draw 4.94/1
Monday 21 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"When scoring at least once, Chelsea have lost just one of their last 38 Premier League home games (W27 D10), with that defeat coming at the hands of Liverpool last season (1-2). The Blues are unbeaten in their last 16 league games in which they've scored at Stamford Bridge (W14 D2)."

Both teams have goalscoring potential and a Chelsea win and both teams to score is 2.915/8.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 337.00 pts
Returned: 353.35 pts
P/L: +16.35 pts

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