What The Stats Say: Seagulls can steal goal against Chelsea

Chelsea manager Frank Lampard.
Will Frank Lampard be applauding his Chelsea team when they travel to Brighton?

Chelsea have been busy in the transfer market, but Dan Fitch doesn't expect their defence to be much improved, as he previews the weekend Premier League games using Opta Stats...

"Chelsea shipped 54 Premier League goals last season, their most in a season since 1996-97 (55) and their tally of just nine clean sheets was their joint-lowest ever in a Premier League campaign, along with 1996-97 and 2015-16."

Back both teams to score when Brighton take on Chelsea at 1.824/5

Goals should flow in London derby

Fulham 6.411/2 v Arsenal 1.68/13; The Draw 4.57/2
Saturday 12 September, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Fulham have lost each of their last five Premier League matches against Arsenal, conceding nine goals in their two defeats against the Gunners the last time they were in the top-flight in 2018-19 (1-5 home, 1-4 away)."

With Arsenal much better going forward than they are defending, over 2.5 goals looks overpriced at 1.845/6.

Southampton prefer away days

Crystal Palace 3.39/4 v Southampton 2.486/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 12 September, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Southampton have won their last three away Premier League visits to Crystal Palace without conceding a single goal.

The Saints were very good away from home last season and you can back them cautiously in the Draw No Bet market and still get odds of 1.75/7.

Champions will start with win

Liverpool 1.330/100 v Leeds 11.5; The Draw 6.611/2
Saturday 12 September, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

"This is the seventh time in the Premier League that the reigning champions have faced a newly-promoted side at home on the opening day, with the title-holders winning all six of the previous games."

This us another example of a promoted club getting a daunting opening fixture and the 1.9110/11 for Liverpool to win half-time/full-time looks like value.

Antonio can resume scoring streak

West Ham 2.26/5 v Newcastle 3.613/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 12 September, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Ham's Michail Antonio ended last season with eight goals in his last seven Premier League appearances - his tally of eight goals in July 2020 is bettered only by Luis Suárez in December 2013 (10 goals) in a single calendar month in Premier League history."

There was great value to be had backing Antonio in this period, as the markets took time to wake up to the fact that he was being used as a striker. You can still get odds of 2.89/5 for hin to find the net.

Leicester nice price to claim away win

West Brom 4.1 v Leicester 2.021/1; The Draw 3.814/5
Sunday 13 September, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

"West Bromwich Albion have lost their last four Premier League home games against Leicester City - their longest ever losing streak at home to the Foxes."

All three of the promoted clubs have been given difficult games on the opening weekend and Leicester are 2.021/1 to claim victory.

Spurs are Everton's bogey side

Tottenham 1.910/11 v Everton 4.67/2; The Draw 3.814/5
Sunday 13 September, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Everton have won just three of their 28 away Premier League matches against Tottenham (D8 L17), with all three wins coming in consecutive seasons between 2006-07 and 2008-09 - they are winless in 11 visits since November 2008 (D4 L7)."

Spurs won this fixture 1-0 when the sides met in July and you can back them to win again at 1.910/11.

Low scoring match as shot-shy teams meet

Sheffield United 3.55/2 v Wolves 2.466/4; The Draw 3.185/40
Monday 14 September, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Last season, Sheffield United recorded just 114 shots on target, fewer than any other Premier League side. It's the fewest shots on target in a season for a side finishing in the top half of the table since 1997-98 (when we have this stat available)."

With Wolves also being a cautious side, a half-time correct score of 0-0 could land at 2.3811/8.

Brighton can breach leaky Chelsea defence

Brighton 5.69/2 v Chelsea 1.674/6; The Draw 4.3100/30
Monday 14 September, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Chelsea shipped 54 Premier League goals last season, their most in a season since 1996-97 (55) and their tally of just nine clean sheets was their joint-lowest ever in a Premier League campaign, along with 1996-97 and 2015-16."

Both teams to score could be a go to bet for Chelsea's matches this season and you can back it here at 1.824/5.

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 43.00 pts
Returned: 51.86 pts
P/L: +8.86 pts

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