What The Stats Say: Manchester United big price to continue form

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Armed with statistics from Opta, Dan Fitch is in search of value amongst this week's Premier League fixtures and he thinks Manchester United can provide some.

“Coming into MD32, no team is on a current longer unbeaten run in the Premier League than Manchester United (7, level with Wolves).”

Brighton are also in good form, but Manchester United have the extra class and their odds of [1.79] to win look generous.

Red hot Mexican can score again

Aston Villa [5.1] v Wolves [1.82]; The Draw [3.9]

"Wolves' Raúl Jiménez is the top scoring Premier League player in all competitions this season, netting 24 goals. The last time a Wolves player netted more in a single campaign was Sylvan Ebanks-Blake in 2008-09 (25)."

Jimenez has scored in both of his two matches since the season restarted and is [2.36] to add to his tally.

Competitive game will see goals

Watford [2.54] v Southampton [3.1]; The Draw [3.4]

"In this exact fixture last season, Southampton's Shane Long scored the fastest ever goal in Premier League history, finding the net after just 7.69 seconds."

Watford have a strong home record under Nigel Parson and Southampton are at their best playing away, so this should be a competitive match with both teams to score landing at [1.82].

Defences will be on top in first-half

Crystal Palace [2.4] v Burnley [3.5]; The Draw [3.2]

"Crystal Palace (9) and Burnley (10) have scored the fewest first-half Premier League goals this season."

The 0-0 half-time score looks to have a chance of paying out at odds of [2.5].

United class will tell

Brighton [5.5] v Manchester United [1.79]; The Draw [3.7]

"Coming into MD32, no team is on a current longer unbeaten run in the Premier League than Manchester United (7, level with Wolves)."

Brighton are also in good form, but Manchester United have the extra class and their odds of [1.79] to win look generous.

Gunners to inflict more misery on Norwich

Arsenal [1.53] v Norwich [7.0]; The Draw [4.5]

"Arsenal have won as many Premier League games in 13 matches under Mikel Arteta (W5 D5 L3) as they did in 18 games under Unai Emery and Freddie Ljungberg this season (W5 D8 L5)."

With Norwich having lost both of their two games since the season restart, this should be another win for Arsenal under Arteta and you can back the half-time/full-time victory at [2.36].

Newcastle will frustrate Cherries pickers

Bournemouth [2.4] v Newcastle [3.5] ; The Draw [3.3]

"Both of Newcastle's Premier League defeats against Bournemouth have come at home, with the Magpies unbeaten in their three previous visits to the Vitality Stadium (W1 D2)."

Newcastle have been in better form than Bournemouth and can claim a point with a draw at [3.3].

Everton home form reliable

Everton [2.74] v Leicester [2.84]; The Draw [3.5]

"Everton are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D4) - only Liverpool (56) are on a longer current run without a home defeat in the competition."

Leicester have failed to win their last two games and backing Everton at [1.91] in the Draw No Bet market seems a safe bet.

Chelsea will win London derby

West Ham [5.4] v Chelsea [1.69]; The Draw [4.3]

"Chelsea have won their last three Premier League London derbies on the road, last having a longer such run between April-November 2009 (4)."

Under normal circumstance the price of [1.69] for a Chelsea win might not seem that big, but given the respective form of the two teams, it represents great value here.

Blunt Blades will serve up few goals

Sheffield United [4.0] v Tottenham [2.1]; The Draw [3.6]

"Sheffield United have failed to score in their last three Premier League games (D1 L2). They haven't failed to score in four consecutive league games since April 2000 under Neil Warnock."

The reverse fixture ended 1-1 and this could be another match where under 2.5 goals lands at [1.78].

Champions will not take foot off gas

Manchester City [2.24] v Liverpool [3.4]; The Draw [3.9]

"With seven games remaining, Liverpool have won the title earlier than any other team in top-flight history. The last team to lose a Premier League game in a season after they confirmed the title was Chelsea in May 2015 against West Brom - in games of this kind since, champion teams are unbeaten in 10 matches (W8 D2)."

Considering the ease with which Liverpool have won the title, their price to win this one is absurdly big. They will want to beat Manchester City to exert their dominance and you can back Liverpool to simply avoid defeat in the Double Chance market and still get odds of [1.76].

Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L

Staked: 670.00 pts
Returned: 648.66 pts
P/L: -21.34 pts

Dan Fitch,

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