What The Stats Say: Liverpool could feel Blues on party day

Dan Fitch
17 July 2020

Will Jurgen Klopp look happier after Liverpool's match with Chelsea?

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Dan Fitch thinks Chelsea could spoil the party when Liverpool are crowned champions, as he previews the Premier League action using Opta Stats...

“Liverpool have dropped more points in the five games since becoming Premier League champions (8 – W2 D1 L2) than they had in their previous 40 matches in the competition (7 – W37 D2 L1).”

Liverpool look a little short at this price against a Chelsea side still fighting for points and you can back the draw at 3.9.

Another loss for Norwich

Norwich 3.55/2 v Burnley 2.3211/8; The Draw 3.412/5

"Norwich have lost 11 of their 18 Premier League home games this season (W4 D3). In their league history, they've only lost more at home once (12 in the 1946-47 Third Division South)."

With Burnley in good form the visitors look a big price at 2.3211/8 to inflict another defeat upon Norwich.

Ings is away day specialist

Bournemouth 2.47/5 v Southampton 3.02/1; The Draw 3.814/5

"Danny Ings has scored 11 away goals in the Premier League this season - only Matt Le Tissier (12 in 1993-94) has scored more on the road for Southampton in a single campaign in the competition."

Against Bournemouth's leaky defence, Ings can be backed at 2.111/10 to add to his tally.

Kane loves Leicester

Tottenham 2.3611/8 v Leicester 3.259/4; The Draw 3.55/2

"Tottenham's Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in 13 games against Leicester in all competitions, more than he's scored against any other opponent in his career."

Kane looked sharp as he scored a brace against Newcastle in midweek and is a relatively big price at 2.47/5 to score against his favourite opponents.

Brighton will get vital point

Brighton 1.991/1 v Newcastle 4.47/2; The Draw 3.55/2

"Brighton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Newcastle (W2 D3) - they've only faced West Ham more often in the competition without defeat (6)."

The Seagulls are not in great form, but are inching towards safety. Back them to earn the point they need to ensure they survive, with a draw at 3.55/2.

Blades will cut through Toffees

Sheffield United 2.226/5 v Everton 3.613/5; The Draw 3.412/5

"Everton have lost 11 away Premier League games this season, their most since 2003-04 (also 11), while the Toffees haven't lost more than 11 in a season since 2000-01 under Walter Smith (13)."

With Sheffield United in good form at home, this could be another away loss for Everton, with the Blades available at 2.226/5.

Wolves to take valuable three points

Wolves 1.538/15 v Crystal Palace 8.615/2; The Draw 4.1

"Crystal Palace have lost their last six Premier League matches, failing to score in five of those fixtures."

With Wolves a tight unit defensively, the hosts could win to nil at 2.111/10.

Hornets can sting City

Watford 11.521/2 v Manchester City 1.330/100; The Draw 6.411/2

"Under manager Nigel Pearson, Watford have won six of their 10 Premier League home games (D2 L2) and have only failed to score once at Vicarage Road."

Watford are a different team at home that when on their travels and you can back both teams to score at 1.845/6.

Goals will flow at Villa Park

Aston Villa 3.711/4 v Arsenal 2.0621/20; The Draw 3.9

"Since his league debut for Aston Villa in January 2017, Conor Hourihane has provided more assists in league competition (inc. play-offs) than any other Villa player (21)."

This is another game where two teams at opposite ends of the table provide goals. Over 2.5 goals is 1.75/7.

Entertaining win for Manchester United

Manchester United 1.292/7 v West Ham 12.011/1; The Draw 6.05/1

"Both Anthony Martial (11) and Marcus Rashford (12) have reached double figures in the Premier League for Manchester United at Old Trafford this season, only the third time more than one player has done so for the club in a season."

Manchester United have been in exciting form in recent weeks and you can back a home win and over 3.5 goals at 2.6213/8.

Draw for champions

Liverpool 2.0421/20 v Chelsea 3.711/4; The Draw 3.9

"Liverpool have dropped more points in the five games since becoming Premier League champions (8 - W2 D1 L2) than they had in their previous 40 matches in the competition (7 - W37 D2 L1)."

Liverpool look a little short at this price against a Chelsea side still fighting for points and you can back the draw at 3.9.

Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L

Staked: 784.00 pts
Returned: 777.41 pts
P/L: -6.59 pts