It's the final day of the season on Sunday and Dan Fitch is backing Harry Kane to score again, as he uses Opta Stats to find the best Premier League bets...
“Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored six goals in five appearances on the final day of Premier League seasons. Of the 487 players to have played in five such matches, Kane has the fourth best minutes-per-goal ratio on the closing day (one every 72 minutes), behind only Yakubu (44), Thierry Henry (64) and Matthew Le Tissier (67).”
Hornets will get stung at Arsenal
Arsenal [2.0] v Watford [3.95]; The Draw [3.95]
"Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 14 final day Premier League games (W12 D2), winning the last eight in a row. Arsenal haven't lost their final league game when being played at home since a 1-3 defeat to Spurs in 1992-93, winning 10 in a row on home soil since."
The Gunners may have lost at Aston Villa in midweek, but they are much more reliable at home and are a big price at [2.0] to beat struggling Watford.
Burnley underestimated again
Burnley [2.42] v Brighton [3.2]; The Draw [3.6]
"Burnley have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games (W8 D6) and are unbeaten in their last seven (W4 D3). In those 15 games, the Clarets have conceded just 11 goals, with five of those coming in their only defeat in that run (0-5 v Man City)."
Sean Dyche's team are available at a curiously high price against a Brighton side that only narrowly avoided relegation. It's worth taking a chance on Burnley winning to nil at odds of [5.5].
Hungry Wolves have some bite
Chelsea [1.88] v Wolves [4.5]; The Draw [3.95]
"Chelsea have conceded 54 Premier League goals this term, only in 1994/95 and 1996/97 have they conceded more in a single campaign in the competition (55 goals conceded on each occasion); indeed, Chelsea have conceded 46% of the shots on target they have faced this season (54/117), the highest ratio in the division."
Wolves need a win to guarantee Europa League qualification and with the visitors motivated, both teams to score should land at [1.84].
Kane will keep Eagles grounded
Crystal Palace [6.6] v Tottenham [1.6]; The Draw [4.3]
"Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored six goals in five appearances on the final day of Premier League seasons. Of the 487 players to have played in five such matches, Kane has the fourth best minutes-per-goal ratio on the closing day (one every 72 minutes), behind only Yakubu (44), Thierry Henry (64) and Matthew Le Tissier (67)."
With Kane in great form and Spurs needing a win, the England captain looks value to score at [2.0].
Toffees a sticky proposition for Bournemouth
Everton [2.28] v Bournemouth [3.2]; The Draw [3.9]
"Everton are unbeaten in all nine of their Premier League home games under Carlo Ancelotti - no Everton manager in their top-flight history has remained unbeaten in their opening 10 home league games in charge."
As much as Bournemouth need a win to stand any chance of staying up, the price of [2.28] for Everton to claim a home victory seems generous.
Crafty Foxes and United will produce goals
Leicester [3.25] v Manchester United [2.34]; The Draw [3.7]
"Manchester United have opened the scoring within the opening 10 minutes in each of their last three Premier League matches against Leicester."
With the Foxes needing a win and Manchester United full of attacking talent, both teams to score should land at [1.73].
Big win to end Manchester City's season
Manchester City [1.1] v Norwich [38.0]; The Draw [14.5]
"Norwich have lost all 26 Premier League games in which they've fallen behind this season - they could become the first team in Premier League history to fail to recover a single point from a losing position in a whole season."
As Norwich are already relegated, we have to assume that Manchester City will win handsomely and you can back them to win both halves at [1.72].
Magpies can score in defeat
Newcastle [8.6] v Liverpool [1.43]; The Draw [5.2]
"Liverpool won this exact fixture 3-2 last season - they haven't won back-to-back league games at St James' Park since December 2008."
Liverpool's defence has not looked nearly so secure since the season resumed and you can back an away win and both teams to score at [2.88].
Ings gunning for Golden Boot
Southampton [2.26] v Sheffield United [3.5]; The Draw [3.6]
"50% of the Premier League goals Danny Ings has ever scored have been for Southampton this season (21/42). He could become just the second Southampton player to score 10+ goals both home and away in a single Premier League campaign, after Matt Le Tissier in 1993-94."
Ings has a chance of finishing the season as the Premier League's top scorer and is [2.1] to find the net.
Goals now flowing for West Ham
West Ham [3.25] v Aston Villa [2.34] ; The Draw [3.8]
"Since David Moyes took charge of his first Premier League game back at West Ham in January, only Man City (7) have scored 3+ goals in more different Premier League games than the Hammers (6)."
Aston Villa need a win, so there looks likely to be goals in this game, with over 2.5 available at [1.72].
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 800.00 pts
Returned: 796.83 pts
P/L: -3.17 pts