What The Stats Say: Burnley big price to nail Hammers

Dan Fitch
06 July 2020

Will Sean Dyche be smiling after Burnley's match with West Ham?

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Dan Fitch thinks in-form Burnley are great value against West Ham, as he analyses the Opta Stats for this week's Premier League games.

"Burnley have won three of their last five Premier League away games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 on the road (W3 D4 L9)."

Given the respective positions of the teams and Burnley's positive form, the price for the visitors looks huge. You can play it safe and back Burnley in the Draw No Bet market and still get odds of 2.89/5.

Chelsea will keep clean sheet

Crystal Palace 8.27/1 v Chelsea 1.511/2; The Draw 4.57/2

"Crystal Palace have lost their last three Premier League games without scoring a single goal. They last lost four in a row without scoring between May-September 2017 - a run of eight under three different managers (Sam Allardyce, Frank de Boer and Roy Hodgson)."

Chelsea aren't always reliable defensively, but against this toothless Crystal Palace attack, they should win to nil at 2.427/5.

Watford can claim vital win

Watford 1.695/7 v Norwich 5.85/1; The Draw 4.1

"Norwich City have lost 22 Premier League games this season - in no top-flight campaign have they ever lost more. Their highest number of defeats in a league season is 24, with the Canaries last losing that many in the 2008-09 Championship campaign."

Watford's home form has improved since Nigel Pearson took charge and they should gain an extremely valuable three points at odds of 1.695/7.

Aubameyang has strong home record

Arsenal 2.3211/8 v Leicester 3.412/5; The Draw 3.613/5

"Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored six goals in his last six Premier League home games, including a brace against Norwich last time out. A goal here will see him become the second player to score 20+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons for Arsenal (after Thierry Henry, five between 2001-02 and 2005-06)."

With Leicester having been in inconsistent form of late, Aubameyang looks value at 2.01/1 to score.

City can win big again

Manchester City 1.152/13 v Newcastle 25.024/1; The Draw 10.519/2

"Manchester City have won their last four home Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 14-0."

With City proving to be reliable at home, back them to win both halves at 2.111/10.

Blunt Blades and timid Wolves will be goalless in first-half

Sheffield United 4.1 v Wolves 2.186/5; The Draw 3.259/4

"In their first match back after the restart, Wolves had six shots on target in their 2-0 win against West Ham. They've managed just five across their three subsequent league games, with their only effort on target in their last game coming after 17 seconds."

Against a Sheffield United team that keep things tight, the 0-0 half-time score could land at 2.3811/8.

Burnley big price to win claret and blue battle

West Ham 2.0811/10 v Burnley 4.03/1; The Draw 3.55/2

"Burnley have won three of their last five Premier League away games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 on the road (W3 D4 L9)."

Given the respective positions of the teams and Burnley's positive form, the price for the visitors looks huge. You can play it safe and back Burnley in the Draw No Bet market and still get odds of 2.89/5.

Seagulls can push Liverpool

Brighton 6.411/2 v Liverpool 1.594/7; The Draw 4.3100/30

"Liverpool are unbeaten in all six of their top-flight away games against Brighton (W3 D3), with both teams finding the net in five of those six meetings."

With Brighton having been largely impressive since the season restarted, it could be worth taking a chance on a Liverpool win and both teams to score at 3.211/5.

Cherries will score against Spurs

Bournemouth 5.49/2 v Tottenham 1.684/6; The Draw 4.1

"Tottenham won 3-2 in the reverse fixture, conceding as many goals in that game as they had in their previous seven combined in the Premier League against Bournemouth."

With Spurs rarely keeping a clean sheet these days and Bournemouth desperate for points, both teams to score could land at 1.784/5.

Ings keeps scoring on away days

Everton 2.0811/10 v Southampton 3.9; The Draw 3.613/5

"Southampton's Danny Ings has scored in four different Premier League games against Everton but hasn't been on the winning side in any of them (D1 L3)."

Ings has scored three goals in his last two two away games and is a big price at 2.68/5 to add to his tally.

Fernandes can't keep out of the action

Aston Villa 11.010/1 v Manchester United 1.351/3; The Draw 5.69/2

"Bruno Fernandes has already been involved in 11 goals in his nine Premier League matches. In Premier League history, only five players have had as many as 12 goal involvements in their first 10 games in the competition - Mick Quinn (13), Alan Shearer, Kevin Phillips, Sergio Agüero and Papiss Cissé (all 12)."

As Manchester United's regular penalty taker, Fernandes looks too big at 2.8815/8 to score.

Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L

Staked: 727.00 pts
Returned: 706.35 pts
P/L: -21.65pts