What The Stats Say: Surprising Everton statistic will frustrate Liverpool

Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti.
Will Carlo Ancelotti's Everton spoil Liverpool's Sunday night?

Dan Fitch discovers that Everton have a surprisingly solid home record against Liverpool, as he studies Opta's Premier League statistics.

"Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have ended as draws, with Liverpool winning the other 1-0 in December 2016."

This is a surprising statistic and makes the draw stands out as value at [4.4], regardless of the stakes.

Goals from both sides in crucial relegation battle

Norwich [3.4] v Southampton [2.3]; The Draw [3.7]

"Norwich's Emiliano Buendía has provided seven assists in the Premier League this season, the most of any player yet to score themselves in the competition so far this term."

Norwich's are a capable attacking team, but rarely keep a clean sheet, so back both teams to score at [1.69].

Goals will flow between rival attacks

Tottenham [3.05] v Manchester United [2.5]; The Draw [3.6]

"No side has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League than Tottenham this season (4). The last time they'd kept as few clean sheets after 29 Premier League games was in 2006-07 (also 4), when they also conceded in their 30th game that term."

With both teams being better going forward than defending, over 2.5 goals should land at [1.95].

Mourinho glum in training.jpg

Pearson has improved Watford at home

Watford [3.6] v Leicester [2.22]; The Draw [3.6]

"Since Nigel Pearson's first home match in charge of Watford (22nd December), only Liverpool (18) have won more points in home Premier League games than the Hornets (13 - W4 D1 L1)."

Watford are a big price given their home record and you can back them to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at [1.77].

Brighton have strong record against Arsenal

Brighton [3.45] v Arsenal [2.26]; The Draw [3.6]

"Brighton lost their first Premier League meeting against Arsenal in October 2017 but are unbeaten in four games against the Gunners since (W2 D2)."

The Seagulls will be desperate to kickstart their fight against relegation and could grab a draw at odds of [3.6].

Wolves will feast on West Ham

West Ham [3.7] v Wolves [2.2]; The Draw [3.5]

"Wolves manager Nuno Espírito Santo's best 100%-win record against an opponent in his league managerial career is against West Ham, winning all three games against the Hammers."

Wolves have a favourable run-in and look decent value to claim a win at the struggling Hammers.

Palace can contain Bournemouth

Bournemouth [2.62] v Crystal Palace [3.1]; The Draw [3.3]

"Crystal Palace haven't scored more than twice in any of their 29 Premier League games this season."

With Bournemouth's games no longer a reliable source of goals, under 2.5 could be the bet at [1.79].

Low scoring game likely

Newcastle [3.4] v Sheffield United [2.42]; The Draw [3.25]

"Newcastle are the joint-lowest home scorers in the Premier League this season (12), and are yet to score more than twice in any of their 14 league games at St James' Park this season."

With Sheffield United being so effective defensively, this looks like it will be a low scoring match and the 0-0 half-time score is priced at [2.5].

Chelsea back with a win

Aston Villa [6.0] v Chelsea [1.58]; The Draw [4.6]

"Aston Villa have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Chelsea, winning the other at Villa Park in March 2014."

Villa failed to score in their opening game against Sheffield United and Chelsea are [2.9] to win to nil.

Everton normally frustrate Liverpool at home

Everton [5.9] v Liverpool [1.64]; The Draw [4.4]

"Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have ended as draws, with Liverpool winning the other 1-0 in December 2016."

This is a surprising statistic and makes the draw stands out as value at [4.4], regardless of Liverpool's desire to secure the title.

Aguero will be let off the leash

Manchester City [1.17] v Burnley [21.0]; The Draw [9.4]

"Man City striker Sergio Agüero has scored nine goals in nine appearances against Burnley in all competitions - he has scored in all five home games against the Clarets, netting on average every 47 minutes at the Etihad (six goals in 281 minutes)."

Aguero was on the bench for Manchester City's first game back against Arsenal, so should start this one and is [3.6] to score the first goal.

Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L

Staked: 632.00 pts
Returned: 609.63 pts
P/L: -22.37 pts

Dan Fitch,

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