Danny Ings has a strong record against Arsenal of late and Dan Fitch fancies his price to score, as he studies the Opta stats for this week's Premier League games.
“Southampton’s leading goalscorer this season Danny Ings has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Arsenal. The striker has only found the net more often against Aston Villa and Everton (4 each) in the competition.”
Foxes can scare off Seagulls
Leicester 1.748/11 v Brighton 5.79/2; The Draw 4.03/1
"Brighton have taken just one point from their 30 available in the Premier League away from home against sides starting the day in the top four, drawing their first such match at Watford in August 2017 before losing each of the last nine in a row."
Leicester came close to beating Watford on Saturday and can claim their first win since the season restart, at odds of 1.748/11.
Spurs will win London derby
Tottenham 1.728/11 v West Ham 5.59/2; The Draw 4.1
"West Ham have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games (D2 L7), while away from home the Hammers have lost each of their last six. Only Bournemouth (7) have won fewer Premier League points so far in 2020 than David Moyes' side (8)."
With West Ham in such poor form and Spurs having looked promising against Manchester United, this should be a home win at 1.728/11.
Fernandes is already a Manchester United star
Manchester United 1.4640/85 v Sheffield United 9.89/1; The Draw 4.67/2
"Since Bruno Fernandes' debut for the club in February, no Manchester United player has scored more goals (4), made more assists (4), had more shots (38), shots on target (15), created more chances (26) or played more passes into the box (98, incl. crosses) than the Portuguese star."
As United's penalty taker, Fernandes looks value at 3.39/4 to score.
Magpies can steal points
Newcastle 2.47/5 v Aston Villa 3.412/5; The Draw 3.55/2
"Aston Villa have won just two of their last 33 Premier League games away from Villa Park (D5 L26), beating Norwich in October and Burnley in January. The Villans are the only side yet to keep a clean sheet on the road in the Premier League this term."
Villa need a win here, but that could help a Newcastle side that have dangerous pace on the break. Take a chance on a second successive Newcastle home win at 2.47/5.
Norwich will struggle against in-form striker
Norwich 4.216/5 v Everton 1.9620/21; The Draw 3.814/5
"Six of Dominic Calvert-Lewin's 13 Premier League goals for Everton this season have come away from home - the last Englishman to net seven away goals in a single Premier League campaign for Everton was Nick Barmby in 1999-00."
Calvert-Lewin looks a different player under Carlo Ancelotti and could add to his tally against a leaky Norwich defence, at odds of 2.35/4.
Wolves can get ahead early
Wolves 1.664/6 v Bournemouth 6.611/2; The Draw 4.03/1
"Since the start of last season, Bournemouth have lost more Premier League away games than any other side, losing 24 of their 34 games on the road in that time."
With Wolves in good form and aiming for Champions League qualification, they can take advantage against Bournemouth by winning half-time/full-time at 2.77/4.
Mane can continue scoring streak
Liverpool 1.261/4 v Crystal Palace 15.5; The Draw 6.86/1
"Liverpool's Sadio Mané has scored eight goals in 10 Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace, scoring exactly once in eight different games against them. His record of scoring in 80% of his appearances against Palace is the second-best ratio in Premier League history (minimum 10 games), behind Harry Kane against Arsenal (9/10, 90%)."
Given Mane's record against Palace, he looks good value at 2.021/1 to find the net.
Burnley big price against relegation threatened Watford
Burnley 2.942/1 v Watford 2.77/4; The Draw 3.39/4
"Burnley have won four of their seven Premier League matches against Watford (D1 L2), winning 3-0 earlier this season at Vicarage Road."
The Clarets have had a decent season and should avoid defeat, making the 2.111/10 for Burnley in the Draw No Bet market, a safe looking bet.
Ings back among the goals
Southampton 2.747/4 v Arsenal 2.747/4; The Draw 3.613/5
"Southampton's leading goalscorer this season Danny Ings has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Arsenal. The striker has only found the net more often against Aston Villa and Everton (4 each) in the competition."
Ings scored against Norwich on Friday and is 2.26/5 to add to his tally.
Manchester City will claim Chelsea win
Chelsea 4.216/5 v Manchester City 1.875/6; The Draw 4.1
"Man City have won six of their last nine Premier League meetings with Chelsea (L3), as many as they had in their previous 34 against them (W6 D7 L21)."
Manchester City should have the edge in what looks likely to be an entertaining game. A Manchester City win and both teams to score is 3.412/5.
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 654.00 pts
Returned: 633.82 pts
P/L: -20.18 pts