Dan Fitch has been scanning the weekend Opta stats for Premier League and EFL Cup final tips and he fancies Everton's scoring run to continue at the expense of Manchester United's defensive record.
“Everton have scored in their last nine Premier League games (all under Carlo Ancelotti) – only Liverpool (36) are on a longer current run.”
Norwich can keep it tight again
Norwich 7/24.7 v Leicester 4/51.78 The Draw 100/304.3
"After a run of nine consecutive Premier League home games in which they conceded at least two goals, Norwich have shipped just twice across their last three at Carrow Road (W1 D1 L1)."
With Norwich doing better defensively and Leicester having not scored in their last two games, under 2.5 goals is 5/42.28.
Palace will be thwarted by rivals
Brighton 11/102.12 v Crystal Palace 4.1 The Draw 12/53.4
"Brighton are unbeaten in their last three league meetings with Crystal Palace (W2 D1), their longest such run against them since a run of 10 between 1979 and 1986."
As Brighton are on a run of stalemates, this A23 derby could end in a draw at 12/53.4.
Chelsea can't stop conceding
Bournemouth 4/15.1 v Chelsea 4/51.8 The Draw 3/13.95
"Chelsea have conceded 45% of the shots on target they've faced in the Premier League this season (37/83), more than any other side. Indeed, it's the highest such ratio any side has conceded in a single season since this data is available (2003-04)."
Bournemouth have a good record against Chelsea and both teams to score should land at 4/51.83.
Burnley should not be outsiders
Newcastle 7/42.7 v Burnley 85/403.1 The Draw 11/53.2
"Burnley have won four of their last five Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 14 in the competition (W4 D0 L10)."
These teams are in contrasting form and it's hard to see a bet on Burnley in the Draw No Bet market at 11/102.08 losing money.
Away specialists can take points
West Ham 9/52.78 v Southampton 13/82.66 The Draw 13/53.6
"No side has won fewer Premier League points at home than West Ham this season (12). Meanwhile, Southampton have won a league-high share 59% of their points away from home this term (20/34)."
This is another match in which backing the away side Draw No Bet makes sense, with Southampton at 10/111.92.
Liverpool will have game won early
Watford 8/18.8 v Liverpool 4/91.44 The Draw 4/15.0
Under Jürgen Klopp, Liverpool have scored more Premier League goals against Watford than they have vs any other side in the competition (27 in nine games).
Liverpool can close in on the title by winning half-time/full-time at 5/42.3.
Ancelotti makes positive impact
Everton 7/42.7 v Manchester United 15/82.9 The Draw 12/53.4
"Everton have scored in their last nine Premier League games (all under Carlo Ancelotti) - only Liverpool (36) are on a longer current run."
You can back Everton to end Manchester United's recent run of Premier League clean sheets, by betting on both teams to score at 4/51.82.
Mexican can takeaway a goal from Tottenham
Tottenham 6/42.54 v Wolves 11/53.2 The Draw 9/43.3
"Wolves' Raul Jimenez has scored 12 goals in 27 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than he managed in 38 games last term."
Jiminez scored against Norwich last weekend and is 85/403.1 to find the net against a leaky Spurs side.
City cup success with continue
Aston Villa 19.5 v Manchester City 2/111.19 The Draw 9.9
"Manchester City have progressed or won the final of each of their last 18 domestic English cup ties (FA/League Cup), the longest run since Chelsea between October 2006 and February 2008 (also 18 in a row), whose run was ended by a League Cup final defeat against Spurs."
You can back Manchester City to lift the EFL Cup by winning the match in 90 minutes with both teams scoring, at odds of 15/82.88.
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