Dan Fitch is surprised by Sheffield United's price at Leicester, as he previews the week's Premier League fixtures using Opta Stats.
“Having failed to win any of their first three Premier League matches back after the restart (D1 L2), Sheffield United have gone unbeaten in their last four (W3 D1) and will be aiming to pick up three consecutive victories in the competition for the first time since December.”
Norwich drought will continue
Chelsea [1.15] v Norwich [25.0]; The Draw [10.0]
"Norwich have failed to score in a league-high 17 Premier League games this season, with 11 of these coming away from home (also a league-high). The Canaries have netted just 26 Premier League goals, and just seven away from home this season - both league-low figures."
Chelsea's defence is far from reliable, but these statistics suggest that the home side can win to nil at [1.9].
Fine Clarets are underestimated
Burnley [5.0] v Wolves [1.94]; The Draw [3.5]
"Burnley have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games (W7 D5), while they're unbeaten in their last six at Turf Moor (W3 D3)."
It looks like Burnley are being underestimated yet again. Wolves are in patchy form and you can back Burnley to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at [1.96].
Another big win for City
Manchester City [1.18] v Bournemouth [20.0]; The Draw [9.4]
"Man City have won all nine of their Premier League games against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 28-4. It's the best 100% record one opponent has against another in English top-flight history."
Manchester City are winning matches by big margins lately and they should win both halves at [2.1].
Spurs will concede
Newcastle [4.9] v Tottenham [1.83]; The Draw [3.9]
"No Premier League team has won more games after conceding the first goal this season than Tottenham Hotspur (4), with their 2-1 win against Arsenal last time out the fourth such occasion this term."
Regardless of the result, it seems likely that Spurs will concede again and you can back both teams to score at [1.84].
Liverpool will return to winning ways
Arsenal [4.0] v Liverpool [1.93]; The Draw [4.1]
"Victory for Liverpool will be their 31st in the Premier League this season - their most ever in a single top-flight campaign in their history."
Liverpool have been unreliable of late, but Arsenal have been unreliable for a long time. The odds of [1.93] for an away victory are big.
Villa can grab point
Everton [2.08] v Aston Villa [3.9]; The Draw [3.6]
"Everton are unbeaten in 10 Premier League home games (W5 D5); only Liverpool (58) are on a longer current such run, while it's the Toffees' longest run without defeat at Goodison Park since December 2016 (11)."
A high percentage of Everton's results during this unbeaten run have been draws and with Villa desperate to get something from this game, the stalemate could land at [3.6].
Blades available at sharp price
Leicester [2.1] v Sheffield United [4.3]; The Draw [3.4]
"Having failed to win any of their first three Premier League matches back after the restart (D1 L2), Sheffield United have gone unbeaten in their last four (W3 D1) and will be aiming to pick up three consecutive victories in the competition for the first time since December."
The Blades are playing better than Leicester right now and are available at large odds. It doesn't seem likely that you'll lose money backing Sheffield United in the Draw No Bet market at [3.0].
Palace in woeful form
Crystal Palace [11.0] v Manchester United [1.36]; The Draw [5.2]
"Crystal Palace have lost each of their last five Premier League games. They last lost six in a row in September 2017 (8), while manager Roy Hodgson hasn't lost six in a row in the competition since his last three with Blackburn in November 1998 and his first three with Fulham in January 2008."
Manchester United are scoring plenty of goals and with Palace in such poor form, the visitors can win both halves at [3.25].
Draw in south coast derby
Southampton [2.22] v Brighton [3.7]; The Draw [3.4]
"Brighton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League away games (W1 D4), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three. No side is on a longer current unbeaten run on the road in the competition, while the Seagulls are looking to pick up consecutive away wins for the first time since November 2017."
Southampton are not reliable at home and with Brighton still needing results to avoid relegation, they can pick up a valuable point at [3.4].
Antonio still not being viewed as scoring threat
West Ham [2.44] v Watford [3.4]; The Draw [3.2]
"Michail Antonio has been involved in 78% of West Ham's Premier League goals since the restart (7/9), scoring six and assisting one. He netted all four of their goals in their 4-0 win at Norwich last time out, doubling his Premier League tally for the season."
The markets don't seem to have responded to Antonio's positional change and the goals that have subsequently flowed. You can back him at [3.2] to score again.
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 766.00 pts
Returned: 756.12 pts
P/L: -9.88 pts