Dan Fitch has his money on Manchester United continuing to win in style when they host Southampton, as he analyses the weekend Premier League games using Opta Stats.
“Manchester United have lost just one of their last 15 home league games (W9 D5), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 13-2.”
Antonio can catch Canaries
Norwich [3.9] v West Ham [2.06]; The Draw [3.8]
"West Ham's Michail Antonio has been involved in three goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 1 assist) - just one fewer than in his first 17 appearances in the competition this season (2 goals, 2 assists)."
Now being used as a striker by the Hammers, odds of [3.2] for Antonio to score look attractive.
Newcastle now a scoring threat
Watford [1.87] v Newcastle [5.0]; The Draw [3.7]
"Before the break, Newcastle's 29 Premier League games this season had seen just 2.3 goals-per-game (F25 A41), the third lowest average in the division. Since the restart, their five games have seen 3.8 goals scored on average (F10 A9)."
The Magpies are starting to spread their wings and you can back both teams to score at [1.96].
Burnley will keep it tight in defeat
Liverpool [1.27] v Burnley [13.5]; The Draw [7.0]
"Burnley's Nick Pope has kept 14 Premier League clean sheets this season, more than any other goalkeeper."
Pope is unlikely to keep a clean sheet at Anfield, but with Burnley tough to break down, a Liverpool win and under 3.5 goals could well land at [2.3].
Giroud the man in form
Sheffield United [6.4] v Chelsea [1.66]; The Draw [4.1]
"Chelsea's Olivier Giroud has scored four goals in his last six Premier League games, including in each of the last two."
With Giroud seemingly Chelsea's first-choice striker these days, odds of [2.7] for the Frenchman to score seem generous.
Back City to get job done early
Brighton [11.0] v Manchester City [1.32]; The Draw [6.2]
"Brighton have lost all five of their Premier League meetings with Manchester City, conceding 15 goals and scoring just twice in return."
Manchester City look like good value at [1.93] to win this one half-time/full-time.
Momentum with Arsenal in derby
Tottenham [2.76] v Arsenal [2.82]; The Draw [3.5]
"Arsenal are looking to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since October 2018, while they last won three in a row on the road without conceding back in May 2013."
This is a difficult one to predict, with Spurs playing awfully but still grinding out results at home and Arsenal improving. Backing Arsenal at [1.95] in the Draw No Bet market looks a safe investment.
Foxes will sniff out goals
Bournemouth [5.4] v Leicester [1.73]; The Draw [4.1]
"Bournemouth's 0-0 draw against Spurs was their first clean sheet in 17 Premier League matches - last keeping consecutive shutouts in November 2019 (a run of three)."
Bournemouth's clean sheet had more to do with Tottenham's lack of potency than the Cherries' defending. There should be goals in this one and both teams to score is [1.9].
United to continue fine form
Manchester United [1.31] v Southampton [11.5]; The Draw [6.4]
"Manchester United have lost just one of their last 15 home league games (W9 D5), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 13-2."
A Manchester United win and over 2.5 goals seems destined to land at [1.83].
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 749.00 pts
Returned: 735.52 pts
P/L: -13.48 pts