Premier League Cheat Sheet: A tip for every match this weekend

Sean Dyche.
Will Sean Dyche lead Burnley to victory over Fulham?

Dan Fitch has analysed the Opta statistics to bring you a bet for every Premier League game this weekend and he likes the price of Burnley to beat floundering Fulham...

“Burnley won 4-0 at Wolves in their last away league game and are looking for back-to-back wins on the road for the first time since July 2020. The Clarets have scored 12 goals in their last six away league games (2 per game), as many as they had in their previous 18 outside of Turf Moor (0.7 per game).”

With the Clarets having found some form, their odds of 3.55/2 look huge against this struggling Fulham side.

Another goal for in-form striker

Leicester 1.454/9 v Newcastle 9.08/1; The Draw 5.04/1
Friday 7 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leicester's Kelechi Iheanacho has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (9 goals, 2 assists), more than he had in his previous 57 in the competition (6 goals, 4 assists)."

With Newcastle having conceded in each of their last seven games, Iheanacho looks value to add to his goal tally at 2.01/1.

Leeds proving themselves against the elite

Leeds 3.711/4 v Tottenham 2.0811/10; The Draw 3.953/1
Saturday 8 May, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Leeds could become the first side to remain unbeaten at home in the Premier League against each of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd and Spurs in a season since West Ham in 2015-16, and only the third newly promoted side to do so, after Ipswich Town in 2000-01 and Birmingham City in 2009-10."

You can back Leeds to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 1.9110/11.

Eagles can fly away with a win

Sheffield United 3.185/40 v Crystal Palace 2.68/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 8 May, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Crystal Palace have lost just two of their last 20 Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone (W12 D6), going down 0-2 at Aston Villa in July and 0-1 at Burnley in November 2020."

It's a relatively big price for Palace and you can back them in the Draw No Bet market at 1.84/5.

Chelsea are tight under Tuchel

Manchester City 2.021/1 v Chelsea 4.47/2; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 8 May, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their 15 Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel - the most shutouts recorded by any manager in their first 15 games in the competition's history. The Blues are looking to win three league games in a row without conceding for the first time since November 2017."

Despite the wealth of attacking talent that will be on display, this looks destined to be a low scoring match, with under 2.5 goals available at 1.738/11.

Anfield no longer a fortress

Liverpool 1.3130/100 v Southampton 11.521/2; The Draw 6.411/2
Saturday 8 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Liverpool have conceded at least once in each of their last eight Premier League home games. Only twice have they had longer runs without a home clean sheet in the competition, going nine games between September - December 1996 and nine between December 1998 - May 1999."

With that stat in mind, both teams to score looks too big at 1.865/6.

Brighton will claim point

Wolves 3.55/2 v Brighton 2.3211/8; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunday 9 May, 12:00
Live on BBC One

"Wolves have won just one of their last 13 league meetings with Brighton (D8 L4), with each of the last four games between the sides ending level."

This would seem likely to be a tight game and you can back this ending in another draw at 3.412/5.

United's unbeaten record will continue

Aston Villa 4.84/1 v Manchester United 1.814/5; The Draw 4.1
Sunday 9 May, 14:05
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 24 Premier League away games (W15 D9), just three short of Arsenal's all-time top-flight record between April 2003 and September 2004."

With Manchester United still needing points to guarantee Champions League qualification, odds of 1.814/5 for the away win, looks like good value.

Cautiously back the hosts

West Ham 2.47/5 v Everton 3.211/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Sunday 9 May, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Ham have won 17 of their 34 Premier League games this season, their most in a single campaign in the competition. They last won more in a top-flight season back in 1985-86 when they finished third (26 in a 42-game season)."

The Hammers are still in the hunt for a top four finish and can be backed at 1.715/7 in the Draw No Bet market.

Baggies can score against loose Gunners

Arsenal 1.511/2 v West Brom 7.413/2; The Draw 4.77/2
Sunday 9 May, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Arsenal have lost seven home Premier League games in 2020-21; they last lost more home league matches in a single campaign in 1929-30 (9), a season in which the Gunners finished 14th in the table."

This should be more competitive than the odds suggest and both teams to score can be backed at 1.9210/11.

Burnley underrated

Fulham 2.285/4 v Burnley 3.55/2; The Draw 3.55/2
Monday 10 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Burnley won 4-0 at Wolves in their last away league game and are looking for back-to-back wins on the road for the first time since July 2020. The Clarets have scored 12 goals in their last six away league games (2 per game), as many as they had in their previous 18 outside of Turf Moor (0.7 per game)."

With the Clarets having found some form, their odds of 3.55/2 look huge against this struggling Fulham side.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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