Ludogorets v Liverpool
Live on Sky Sports 5
Match Odds: Ludogorets 4.216/5, Liverpool 2.01/1, The Draw 3.711/4
Liverpool have failed to score in their last three Champions League games
The Reds' striking resources are at an all-time low: last season's top scorer Luis Suarez was sold to Barcelona, his second-in-command Daniel Sturridge is somehow still sidelined and now they are without £14 million summer signing Mario Balotelli due to injury too. All that they have left is Rickie Lambert (one goal in 13 appearances since joining and deemed worthy of only nine minutes of Champions League action) and Fabio Borini (no strikes in eight outings this term).
Opta note that Liverpool have been shut out in both away European fixtures and have scored just twice in five Champions League road trips over a longer period. Additionally, they have fired four blanks in seven in all competitions, netting four times in that sequence, not a single one of those between minutes 10 and 85.
Recommended Bet: Back Ludogorets to keep a clean sheet @ 4.84/1
Two of Ludogorets' three goals in the Champions League have come in second-half injury-time
With our first trend indicating that there will be no Liverpool goals in Bulgaria and the bolded stat overhead suggesting that Ludogorets do much of their net-rippling after the interval, there is a compelling case for backing the half-time scoreline to be 0-0 at 3.02/1.
However, the extra security of the straight-up half-time draw is priced at 2.226/5 and can be backed with confidence because three of the hosts' four matches in their debut Champions League group have been level at the break, including both home encounters in the initial meeting with Liverpool.
Recommended Bet: Back the half-time draw @ 2.226/5
Ludogorets have received the joint-most bookings in the competition this season (13)
Opta's card trends have provided invaluable insight recently, allowing us to profit from Man City giving the referee grief against CSKA Moscow and there being a sending off in Hull v Tottenham.
The latest line is to expect Ludogorets to "earn" more booking points than Liverpool (it's ten for a yellow and 25 for a red). The Bulgarian champions are tied with Monaco and Ajax as the most-booked club in the competition on 13 and outdid Liverpool by four cards to nil at Anfield. The Reds even collected fewer yellows than Real Madrid in both of their collisions.
Recommended Bet: Back Ludogorets to "win" the bookings match bet @ 2.26/5