Opta Big Match Stats: Lay Man City to beat Spurs

Man City's perfect home record faces one of its sternest tests

After looking at the Opta stats, Lewis Jones thinks Tottenham can end Man City's perfect Premier League home record...

"Man City have lost seven of the 26 Premier League games that Vincent Kompany hasn’t started since the start of 2011/12 (27%), compared to just 13% (8 of 61) when he’s started."
Best Bet: Lay Man City to win @ 1.728/11

Man City have lost seven of the 26 Premier League games that Vincent Kompany hasn't started since the start of 2011/12 (27%), compared to just 13% (8 of 61) when he's started
It doesn't take a genius to work out that football teams generally pick up fewer points when their best players aren't available. Simple stuff, maybe. But sometimes in betting, latching on to the very obvious is the best way to start racking up a long-term profit - as layers of Man City when Kompany isn't in the side have found out. The Premier League title hopefuls have been without their captain since early October, when he limped off with a thigh injury against Everton. Without their rock, City are a different side. They miss his unrivalled leadership and subsequently their defence is a much weaker unit. Compare the Citizens' performance in their 4-1 win over Man United with Kompany in the side and their woefully inept 1-0 defeat at Sunderland without Kompany. Chalk and cheese. Although Tottenham have only scored nine goals in the league this season, Andre Villas-Boas' men have the second-best away record in the division, winning three of their five games and conceding just one goal in the process.
Best Bet: Lay Man City to win @ 1.728/11

14 of the 18 goals scored in the last four Premier League meetings between these two sides have been netted in the second half
If Spurs are to take advantage of a Kompany-less City then, going by past trends, their goals will come after the half-time oranges have been served. Recent trends also support the case for the second half to outscore the first as, of the 55 goals seen in both these teams' matches this season, 35 of them have come in the second period. How can we profit from this, we hear you scream? Simple: Betfair's array of markets provide plenty of opportunities to punt on goal-related bets and, in this case, targeting the Half With Most Goals option looks a canny play.
Recommended Bet: Back the second half to produce the most goals @ 2.0621/20

Of the 114 different players to have scored at least 40 Premier League goals, only Thierry Henry (122) has a better minutes per goal average than Sergio Aguero (123)
Man City's main marksman is fast becoming Premier League striking royalty and, despite doubts regarding their ability to win this match, Aguero should be followed to score at any time considering the sharp goalscoring form he's in. The awesome Argentine has notched 13 times in 14 appearances for City across all competitions this term and also struck twice for his country in their 2-0 midweek beating of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Recommended Bet: Back Sergio Aguero to score @ 2.1411/10

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