Opta Predicts Denmark v England: Back Bellingham to score and be carded at 22/1, say Opta

  • Opta
  • 3:00 min read
Opta are backing Bellingham to score and be carded at a big price

After correctly predicting under 0.5 England cards (at 100/304.30) and Bellingham to score or assist (at 7/52.40) v Serbia, Opta's Will Rook is back to preview England's second group stage game vs Denmark.

England come into their second match in Group C against Denmark knowing that a victory will guarantee their place in the round of 16 at Euro 2024.

As we look forward to that game in Frankfurt, there are plenty of lessons we can take from England's 1-0 win over Serbia and use to inform our bets for this.

Jude is the main man

Following his man-of-the-match performance against Serbia, Jude Bellingham is the 2/1 favourite to win UEFA Young Player of the Tournament on the sportsbook. He was, by some distance, England's best player on the night and it's hard to argue with his price.

The 20-year-old had 93 touches throughout the match - more than any player on either team - as he ran the game. He also registered a pass accuracy of 95.7 per cent, had the most successful tackles and scored the winner. That goal was the third in his last six appearances for England.

It was an assured performance that belied his age, but also one that suggests [16/5] is a good price for him to score again. If not, a hedge on the score or assist market is worth a go at 17/102.70 - Bellingham was 7/52.40 in the same market pre-Serbia.

Something worth thinking about is his controlled aggression and propensity to play on the edge. That could be seen when he deliberately stepped across Filip Kostic in the first half and shouted in the winger's face.

He picked up 11 bookings and one red card for club and country in 2023/24 and is 4/15.00 to be shown a card against Denmark.

Kane free kicks

One thing that does require work is Bellingham's relationship with Harry Kane. With the former owning the no.10 area of the pitch, it negated the need for Kane to drop as deep as he normally does.

As a result, England's number nine was isolated for much of the first half and was unable to have an influence on it. He managed just one touch in the first 45 minutes before deciding to drop deeper again in the second half in search of the ball.

Kane v Serbia - TOuch Map.jpeg

But Kane was able to contribute elsewhere. England's captain won more fouls (six) than any other player on the pitch, which helped his team relieve the pressure when momentum shifted.

We should be wary of expecting the same thing to happen against a different opponent - Serbia committed 19 fouls against England, while Denmark gave away only nine against Slovenia.

But on the basis of the Serbia game, Kane's ability to be streetwise could be profitable. He is available at 7/24.50 to be fouled three or more times against Denmark.

Don't expect a goalfest

Something else that will have been of concern to Gareth Southgate was the performance of Phil Foden and England's general impotence down the left-hand side.

With the lack of any option on the overlap for a cross, Foden was forced to come inside every time he had the ball. That resulted in very little.

The 24-year-old didn't have a single shot, successful dribble, tackle or attempt a take on during England's opening group game. He had one touch in the opposition box and created one chance, which Trent Alexander-Arnold dragged wide.

While you would expect him to improve with the introduction of a left-footed left-back in Luke Shaw, it is as yet unknown whether he is fit enough to play.

Foden v Serbia Opta.jpeg

That underperformance can be at least in part attributed to why England were unable to assert further authority on the game after going a goal up. The Three Lions managed just five shots in the whole match.

It was a similar story for Denmark as they drew 1-1 with Slovenia in the earlier match, forcing just three saves from Jan Oblak.

As a result, it is hard to oppose either BTTS: No at 8/111.73 or under 2.5 goals at 4/61.67.

Influential Eriksen

Manchester United midfielder Christian Eriksen took the headlines in that match, scoring the opening goal three years after his cardiac arrest during Denmark's first game at Euro 2020.

The 32-year-old was to Denmark what Bellingham was for England.

Eriksen took five shots and created seven chances in the match. While he is unlikely to be afforded as much time and space on the ball as he was on Sunday - Denmark completed a record 582 passes - he is a set-piece taker and 9/2 looks a big price for him to have three or more shots.

Following their draw, it's also worth noting that the onus is more on Denmark to win the game than England and Eriksen will once again be the person expected to make something happen.

England shots

For all the narrative surrounding the issues down England's left, it should be noted that Bukayo Saka and Kyle Walker linked up impressively on the right with the former contributing the cross for the goal.

Nobody had more successful dribbles than Saka, while Walker found himself in attacking positions more than he would have been expected to.

Saka is 16/54.20 to contribute another assist, while Walker looks an enticing 6/42.50 for a shot if England's attacking threat is to come down their right again.

Now read tipster Paul Higham's tips on Denmark v England here!

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