Opta

Euro 2024 Opta Stats Matchday One: Winners, losers and 22/1 Golden Boot bet

  • Opta
  • 4:00 min read
Kylian Mbappe playing for France
France won in matchday one but Mbappe suffered an injury

Matchday one of Euro 2024 was thrilling so find out what the Opta Supercomputer says about the winners and losers and how their stats compare to the Betfair odds...


England Superboost

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You can back Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham each to be fouled 1 or more times vs Denmark at 1/12.00, Superboosted up from 1/21.50!

The same selection won at a canter on MD1 vs Serbia, with Kane winning his first foul in the 55th minute to add to a couple that Bellingham had already won in the first half.

Indeed, Kane (6) and Bellingham (4) were fouled 10 times combined in the opening game, and will no doubt be targeted once again.

Heading into the Serbia match, the duo had been fouled 55 times between them in their last 15 England appearances, but their average has now risen to over 4 fouls won per game across their last 16 international caps.

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Six days after the opening match, we are into the swing of things at Euro 2024. What an exciting few days it has been.

Every team has played one match and some will be happier than others. But what have we learned?


Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 today's best tips (featuring a special guest)...


Goals galore

Goals have been flying in all over the shop. There have been 34 in the opening 12 matches at Euro 2024, which translates to 2.83 goals per game.

By comparison, there were six fewer goals scored (28) in the first round of fixtures at Euro 2020, and that was still a tournament which ended up being the highest-scoring Euros edition since the group phase was introduced.

Groups A and B contributed 16 goals to the total this year, suggesting that they are ones to watch going forward.

Fabian Ruiz Spain.jpg

With that in mind, the 2.285/4 on the Betfair Exchange for over 2.5 goals in Italy v Spain looks enticing. There were 27 shots and a retaken penalty in Spain's 3-0 victory over Croatia, while Italy rattled off 17 against Albania on Saturday.

We are yet to see a goalless draw at the tournament. There were four 0-0s in the first round of group games at the 2022 World Cup and one at Euro 2020.

BTTS has also landed in half of the matches. Belgium, Ukraine, Austria, Serbia and Croatia are the only teams not to have scored so far.

Teams haven't been hanging around to do their business either. Albania's Nedim Bejrami scored the fastest European Championship goal of all-time in their 2-1 defeat to Italy, clocking in at 23 seconds. That was one of 17 first-half goals.

The only game in which there has not been a first-half goal was Portugal's 2-1 victory Czech Republic on Tuesday night.

Winners of Euro 2024 Matchday One

Given that most favourites managed to win their opening matches, there was little ground made or lost in the Opta supercomputer's overall tournament winner predictions.

But interestingly, France have drawn level with England as the likeliest winners despite unconvincing performances from both and the injury suffered by Kylian Mbappe (more on him later). The Betfair Sportsbook odds have them both neck and neck at 7/24.50.

Group E.png

Unsurprisingly, the biggest winners of Matchday 1 come from Group E.

The supercomputer gave Romania a 15% chance of winning the group before the tournament started. That is now up 39% following their impressive 3-0 victory over Ukraine.

They are also given a 92% chance of reaching the round of 16 - up from 57% pre-tournament - and that is reflected in their price of 1/121.08 to do so. They are also available at 16/5 to reach the last eight - suggesting an implied probability of 24% - with the supercomputer giving them a 37% chance.

The other team who beat the odds in Group E were Slovakia, beating Belgium 1-0. The result boosted their chances of qualification from 51 to 85%.

Based on the supercomputer's predictions, the value is with the Romania and Slovakia dual forecast at 9/52.80.

Switzerland were also big winners on Matchday 1, with their 3-1 victory over Hungary boosting their chances of making the first knockout round from 61 to 95%.

Gakpo in Golden Boot race at 22/1

Away from specific teams at the tournament, there is an argument to say that the forwards at Euro 2024 are winners because the race for the Golden Boot is still wide open. No player has scored more than one goal, so there is still opportunity for anybody to stake a claim.

Of those who did score, Cody Gakpo had more shots than anybody else with five. While that equates to a conversion rate of 20%, it does suggest that he is getting opportunities.

At 22/123.00 to win the Golden Boot, the Liverpool forward is one to keep an eye on should the Netherlands go deep into the tournament.

Losers of Euro 2024 Matchday One

Scotland were among the biggest losers from the first round of group games at Euro 2024, both in terms of scoreline and supercomputer predictions.

Group A.png

Following their 5-1 demolition against Germany and the two-game suspension of centre-back Ryan Porteous, the Tartan Army are given an 87% likelihood of finishing third or fourth in Group A - up from 60% pre-tournament.

They are given a 50% chace of finishing bottom of the group, while they are 10/111.91 to do so on the Betfair Sportsbook (implying a 52% probability).

In Group E, Belgium and Ukraine suffered opposite fates to Slovakia and Romania.

Belgium saw their chance of reaching the last 16 take a hit of 22 percentage points. A group-stage exit is now rated a 32% chance by the supercomputer, meaning there could be value in the price of 11/43.75 - implied probability of 27%.

Before the tournament started, the supercomputer gave Ukraine a 50% chance of finishing first or second in the group. They are now given a 55% chance of finishing bottom.

Mbappe, meanwhile, has to be classed as one of the big losers of Matchday One. The France captain is still looking for his first ever goal at the European Championship after having four shots against Austria.

He was also forced off with a broken nose and looks likely to miss France's next match against the Netherlands. While he will return at some stage in a protective mask, it's not ideal for him.

He was also booked for re-entering the field after treatment for his injury, meaning that another yellow card before the quarter final will result in a one-game suspension.

He has drifted to 9/110.00 for the Golden Boot behind Harry Kane and Kai Havertz.

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