Non-league / Gary Boswell / 20 February 2008 /

Gary Boswell updates us on his Non-League betting portfolio and gets his calculator out to work out Aldershot's price on winning every competition they're in

In memory of the late great Jeremy Beadle, I start this weekend's blog with a quiz question in the style of the great prankster;

What notable sporting achievement do the memorable footballers, Roy McDonough - sent off a record twenty-one times during his playing career - and the current Aston Villa manager Martin O'Neill have in common?

Answer is that they remain the only two managers to achieve the non-league and cup double - McDonough with Colchester in 1992 and O'Neill, remarkably, the following season with Wycombe Wanderers.

The reason it comes up is that both Gary Waddock and Paul Buckle have a very realistic chance of joining that fraternity this season as Aldershot and Torquay go into their FA Trophy quarter-finals this weekend with sights seemingly set on both the BSP title and a visit to New Wembley for the Trophy showdown in May.

Indeed Aldershot arguably have a realistic treble opportunity with the Setanta Shield also still within their compass. I have been asked twice this week, once in jest and once most seriously by oddsmaker colleagues, what price I would put on the Aldershot treble at this stage. The Boz came up with [70.0] and to arrive at it, I went in depth into the probabilities leading out of the FA Trophy quarter-finals which also threw up the discovery that a 90.92% overround on the remaining eight in the FA Trophy outrights is also out there at best price with bookmakers. I mention for those traders who take interest in such things. I have found whopping overrounds on the FA Trophy outrights before. It was one of the initial factors that lead me to specialising in non-league football but I have to confess to being surprised to finding one this year with the increased exposure that non-league is now getting.

I know a lot of Betfairians use such opportunities to fuel their Betfair trading opportunities and I have taken a leaf out of their book and also responded to my own call on Betfair Radio last week to beef up the liquidity in the Betfair FA Trophy outright market. You'll find the Boz's Back and Lay prices in the market this weekend.

As ever, I'm following the portfolio approach and those who came with me before the last round will want to know what I think of the chances of Tamworth [advised at 67.0] at home to Aldershot and Rushden & Diamonds [advised at 21.0] home to York City this weekend. Truth be told, not much. Although there is always hope in the cup, the draw has not been kind to either and the Boz has already taken steps to add both the Shots and the Minstermen to the portfolio to ensure two live players at the semi final stage.

I've got some [15.0] on York and managed to dig out some [5.1] on Aldershot and I suggest you try to do the same. You'll find my offers on the Betfair markets slightly poorer than these of course (a boy has to make his living!!).

Fact is that I'm pretty keen on Aldershot's chances overall after running the rule over them again in the Live on Setanta against Stevenage last weekend. As well as the Grants, the mightily impressive Lewis Chalmers and a sweeping right back to die for in Rob Gier, I'm also increasingly impressed with midfield playmaker Ben Harding. All the ingredients Boz looks for in a championship-winning side - a hungry young bunch with the odd dash of experience, a goalkeeper of class and a manager who knows his onions -they all seem to be there and the treble IS a possibility. The showdown with Torquay at Plainmoor on March 4th will undoubtedly be the game of the season. The table at the top of this column shows how the Boz BSP portfolio stands and I remain confident that we are on course to collect.

Burton Albion +36
Forest Green +57
Aldershot +39.5
Cambridge United +37.8
Rushden & Diam +11
Oxford - 9
Stevenage -27
Torquay -30.5
Farsley Celtic +148
The Rest/No Play -3

Whilst the Shots and the Gulls battle in the cup, there is a game in the league to keep an eye on. The only feasible third side in the title race now are Jimmy Quinn's Cambridge - following the away losing streak that Burton have got onto and Stevenage's frailty that was visible to all on Sunday. The Us play home to Forest Green and a win at the Abbey will close the gap. Jimmy Quinn has masterminded an unlikely promotion from this division before with Shrewsbury and I'm not writing him out of the equation just yet.

THIS WEEK'S PORTFOLIO BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS:

5pts on Aldershot to win the FA TROPHY at 5.1 or greater.
1.5 pts on York to win the FA TROPHY at 15.0 or greater

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