Non-league / Gary Boswell / 11 February 2008 /

In Gary Boswell's non-league blog this week: how to spot a false price

I'm often asked how to spot a poorly priced team and it's difficult to illustrate an answer because a lot of it lies in the panoramic view of the teams involved. To do this thoroughly, one must have a truly holistic view of a football club, including these factors: current form; long term history; relationship to betting markets, and so on. Every now and then, however, an example arises that makes the process easy to illustrate without going into a ten thousand word thesis and you can see it via a direct comparison in the Blue Square fixtures on Tuesday night.

Take Torquay in the Blue Square Premier. They travel to the Wessex Stadium (Live on Setanta) to play a Weymouth side under the new broom of John Hollins. It looked for a moment like the corner had been turned on a totally inconsistent Terra's season when they racked up a 4-0 Setanta Shield win over Ebbsfleet in mid-week. They reverted to type on Saturday, though, with a 2-1 defeat at Stafford Rangers - a miserable reflection of the sort of season they are having.

Traditionally, the Wessex Stadium is a fortress but with just three wins from twelve there this season, you cannot seriously fancy them to rock the Torquay boat on Tuesday night. That means their price of around [4.33] is deceptively accurate.

The Gulls are a genuine top two contender who have The Boz worried as one of those rare long term assessments that might be about to go pear shaped. I was mildly niggly when I went to a pre-season friendly and saw that Paul Buckle had put together a unit that was obviously going to compete at this level. Solace came, however, in the rocky defence; one that looked unlikely to stay solid enough to achieve Championship consistency. The arrival of goalkeeper Michael Poke on loan from Southampton has addressed that; four clean sheets from four so far, and his loan has now been extended to the end of April.

With The Gulls now playing tight, compact football and seeing out 1-0 wins (in stark contrast to the harem scarem 5-4s of earlier on) they are a much more formidable outfit. Odds of around [1.9] is somewhat short for a win on the telly but The Boz is forced to accept that this is one team that got under his long term radar. It's the right price considering their away form and their opposition.

Let's compare Torquay with our old friends Havant & Waterlooville, who are a similar price ([2.1]) to win away at basement boys Sutton United in Blue Square South (Tuesday night). Sutton's home form (2 wins from 11) puts them on a par with Weymouth as opposition but Havant have won just once in eleven away games this season: hardly in the same bracket as Torquay!

The Hawks are an easily identifiable false price which has been based, of course, on their Anfield exploits. The Boz highlighted them correctly pre-season as poor value Blue Square South favourites and whilst their performance at Westleigh has been impressive, they have been truly woeful on the road. They'll finish in mid table as a result.

Ernie Howe's Sutton will have backers at [3.3] after the arrival of Steffan Ball from Ramsgate. Pairing him with ex-Croydon mate Craig Dundas is one of those inspired signings that can change things round. Sutton are a big club in this league and I do not expect them to slip away without a fight. They have plenty to play for and their form is comparable with Havant; whose season must now feel like 'After the Lord Mayor's show'. They shouldn't be short priced favourites for this and The Boz intends a serious Lay.

RECOMMENDATION:

4pt LAY, Havant & Waterlooville at [2.2] or less

1pt BACK, Torquay at [1.9] or greater

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