Non-league / Gary Boswell / 28 January 2008 /

Betfair's oracle on all things non-league, Gary "The Boz" Boswell, tells us why it's getting very interesting at the top of the Blue Square Premier League.

There have been more wobbles than a Rolf Harris hit record at the top of the Blue Square Premier and Torquay come into tonight's match Live on Setanta with an unexpected chance to completely close the points gap Aldershot opened up over Christmas.

The Shots are showing the worst signs of the wobble with two straight defeats, in both of which they failed to hit the back of the net, but Burton and Stevenage couldn't capitalise over the weekend and Torquay themselves are coming into the game against Histon having not won either of their last two league games. Add to that the fact that the curse of the cameras also affects them, (they've failed to win just nine league games so far this season but an astonishing six of those games have been Live on Setanta!) and consider that their opponents tonight are the rising stars of Histon and you start to sniff the possibility that the oddsmakers have made a mistake again pricing up the Gulls as screaming [1.7] favourites.

Up until this year, the only chance of seeing Torquay v Histon on the fixture list would have been in the early rounds of the FA Cup. Times change, though, and Torquay have joined an ever growing list of ex-league clubs who can now be considered non-league stalwarts, whilst the ex-minnows of Cambridgeshire are now seriously injected with the realistic ambition of becoming another new name on the Football League's roll call.

Steve Fallon has done a fantastic job with the Stutes and they come to tonight's game with the impressive record of having won eight of their fifteen away games in this inaugural season at the highest level the club has ever played. They will not be phased by tonight's game and the strict "current-form" yardstick that saw them beat Jimmy Quinn's Cambridge twice whilst the Us began the Torquay wobble with a win at Plainmoor, says to me that the odds are all askew.

Nat Knight-Percival could be missing for the Stutes (dead leg) and Torquay have made three notable signings in the January transfer window, including ex-Aldershot player Roscoe D'Sane. Recent form might therefore be a little unreliable; but I personally consider recent new signings to be as much a negative as a positive when weighing up relative team strengths and weaknesses, and I expect the dominant individual in the match to be Histon's Antonio Murray who has already won his place in The Boz's Blue Square Team of the Year for his sterling work in the Stutes' frontline.

Paul Buckle will be desperate to win this game and restore the Gulls' belief that they can dominate this league but that is the only factor that would make me consider pricing them up at [1.75]. [5.4] for the Histon win is a minimum of one point too big and is both surprising to me as a dedicated watcher of non-league oddsmaker's work and, I would suggest, an insult to the football that Histon have been playing for the past four years. Take advantage and teach a lesson to those who price up on name alone!

The additional twist to the pressure of the cameras in a game they must win is that three of Torquay's four Championship rivals all have home games the following night courtesy of next weekend being FA Trophy time. Aldershot can be expected to end their drought at home to woebegone Oxford; Burton should beat Rushden, and Cambridge have a decent chance of three points against Exeter. Torquay can, therefore, afford nothing short of victory if they are to keep themselves in contention.

All of the above piles the pressure on Paul Buckle's boys who have given no indication yet that they are adept at handling the heat!

RECOMMENDATIONS:

4pt LAY of TORQUAY at [1.70] or less in the Live on Setanta against Histon

1pt Aldershot to beat Oxford

1pt Burton to beat Rushden

1pt Cambridge to beat Exeter

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