Non-league / Gary Boswell / 28 April 2008 / 1

Gary Boswell has been opposing Torquay all season and is happy to lay them for promotion back into the Football League. But what's his reasoning behind this?

Team Played Won Drawn Lost For Against GD Points
Burton 6 3 2 1 14 9 +5 11
Cambridge 6 3 2 1 7 4 +3 11
Exeter 6 2 2 2 11 13 -2 8
Torquay 6 1 0 5 7 13 -6 3

Unsurprisingly, Torquay are on the drift as Blue Square Premier Play-off favourites. As short as [2.75] last week, out to [3.5] as I write and not only because they lost the runners-up spot on final day. Quite likely, punters have been studying the little mini-league table published above which constitutes the current form between the four clubs taking part against each other in the league this season. Torquay come a resounding bottom with only the slender home win against Exeter and five defeats in the other games.

Still fancy them as favourites? A whopping big lay on the Bozometer with three other big negatives there to bolster the bet.

1/ Paul Buckle is the least experienced manager of the four.
2/ Simon Rayner is clearly the weakest goalkeeper of the four.
3/ Torquay have the FA Trophy final visit to Wembley on May 10 to distract them from the critical play-off task.

The two positives in the first two of the above categories belong to Cambridge. Jimmy Quinn is clearly the most experienced manager and has the accolade of having engineered a Conference play-off success before with Shrewsbury. Danny Potter also gets the Boz rating for top goalkeeper - an opinion supported by the Us conceded goals record this league season of just 41 in 46. The best defensive record overall in the division.

A third positive for Cambridge lies in Rob Wolleaston getting the Boz BSP player of the season award (when excluding the players from champions Aldershot).

It's a tight competition with all four teams finishing within five points of each other over the season and all capable of defeat against lesser opposition which is the reason none are champions.

So, like most play-offs, a fair call to say that any one could prevail but having seen the division inside out this season, I'm clear that the Gulls have the toughest task of the four and are the outsiders in my market. I'm happy to lay them at anything under [5.0] (although the way the drift is going, that price suddenly looks like it might become current. At bigger than [5.0], they would be an interesting back!) and I'll back Cambridge at half that stake at anything above [3.25] leaving Exeter and Burton also on my side in the portfolio.

There's nothing in my world to beat a false favourite and Torquay were that until I started opening my mouth!! Let's hope I haven't spoiled the price!

The Blue Square North play-off betting is not surprisingly dominated by those intrepid Bluebirds who did Boz proud over the final weeks of the season landing five successive naps on their unbeaten run-in.

Who would have had them as promotion favourites at Xmas when they languished in 16th place in the table? Make no mistake that the club of Barrow is a sleeping giant - not that dissimilar to Aldershot in recent years - and this was marked by an outstanding crowd of 2,468 for the final day game against Worcester. I expect that figure to be beaten again in the play-offs as the whole town gets behind their heroes. You are not going to get much of a price now as they are quoted around as [3.25] favourites so hopefully you took the advised [6.0] that was on offer before the Worcester game.

In truth, I'm not that confident of ultimate Bluebird success as all three play-off opponents present stern opposition. Barrow have a recent 2-0 win over first opponents AFC Telford but the run-in by Southport under Gary Brabin and the 6-0 that Steve Burr's Stalybridge chalked over Redditch on the final day would suggest to me that Barrow are going to have their work cut out against either of these in the final.

I cannot desert them now mind after making us such good dosh in the last few weeks and I'll be having another small back in the outrights to add to the [6.0] I've already taken.

My tips for the Conference South play-offs (Newport County) never even made it in and I remain a little in the dark about the likely outcome in this one. Good judges on the Non-League Pools Panel, however, assure me that the form team are Alan Devonshire's Hampton & Richmond who could prove a value price at around [3.3] to take advantage of the downer that favourites Eastbourne have ended their season on.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

5pt LAY on Torquay in the BSP Promotion outrights at [5.0] or less
2.5pt BACK on Cambridge at currently available [3.75]
1pt BACK on BARROW at [3.25] in BSN play-off outrights
1pt BACK on HAMPTON & RICHMOND at [3.3] in BSS play-off outrights

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1. Daz | 29 April 2008

   Went to watch the first leg of the Fisher v Hampton game tonight and I think the second league will be tight. Hampton were the better team in the first half but the goal was rather fortunate as a long distance shot took a nasty bounce on an awful pitch right in front of the keeper who couldnt deal with it properly and a Hampton striker pounced on the rebound. Different story in the 2nd half as Fisher played some nice football which considering the pitch was waterlogged in places was a fair achievement and fully deserved their equaliser and they hit the post in injury time.
   Like I say I wouldnt like to call who will make it through to the final.

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