Non-league / Gary Boswell / 04 February 2008 /

Gary Boswell talks us through the best midweek bets from the world of Non-League football

There are loads of reasons why I follow non-league football in preference to its league counterpart but the two most fundamental ones link into my interest in betting.I have a natural affinity with the underdog and get my greatest pleasure in life seeing and betting on David when he humbles Goliath. No getting away from that. I'll take months of defeat and toil in the soil to achieve that one moment of shining glory when the complacent smirk is wiped off the face of the red hot fav.

Then there is the fact that accurately pricing up markets in sports that you don't get to see a lot of is actually very hard. Bookmakers traditionally made a lot of mistakes in pricing up non-league football and them's the markets punters have to get involved in. Learnt that the hard way after years of unsuccessfully trying to take the bookmakers on in horse racing markets where I had absolutely no edge at all. Managed to get a few quid back in recent years.

Of course, the arrival of regular TV screening of non-league football -as we've seen this year- potentially starts to level the playing field up again. Case in point tonight as we get to bet on Woking versus Forest Green in the Setanta Shield 5th Round having had chance to directly assess the Cards' current form as recently as last Thursday night when they also featured in the Live Blue Square Premier encounter against Altrincham.

I highlighted Guiseppe Sole and Marvin Morgan as two Woking players instrumental
in changing the face of a side noted for its defensive approach and sure enough they demonstrated their interplay on Thursday with a slick second goal to put the Cards in a commanding 2 goal lead. It was there for all to see and the oddsmakers have reacted by making Cards the fav tonight - flying in the face of the league position evidence that would previously have dictated the odds for tonight's game. And so we have a situation where Forest Green - far superior in the League with 13 wins from 28 as opposed to Woking's 8 from 30 - are the outsiders trading at [2.8] on Betfair this morning.

Television is an influential and ephemeral beast and oddsmakers are still, to my mind, demonstrating their ignorance of the bigger picture - being swayed by that small slice of quality play and ignoring the issue of Altrincham being allowed back into Thursday's game ( a truer reflection of Woking's overall ability). This season's Forest Green are a far superior outfit.
Mistakes are therefore still being made in Non-League football oddsmaking (reason I'm still specialising in it). The Boz has a Forest Green with Stuart Fleetwood in the line up clearly favourite for tonight's game.

Check that Jim Harvey is still taking the competition seriously before you play but then get stuck in. In play betting will be available so if Woking take an early lead, as they did on Thursday, remember to take advantage of the in-running prices. This is another game where plenty of fluctuations in scoring could easily happen!

Tuesday night sees another Setanta Shield opportunity. Nuneaton Borough are Blue Square North top five whilst Halifax are Blue Square Premier bottom ten which makes the two roughly in the same class zone. Nuneaton are on a current seven game unbeaten with a tremendous home record at Liberty Way whilst Halifax have just four points from last six games with an away record of just 2 wins from fourteen all season. Chris Wilder's Shaymen rely heavily on Lewis Killeen for their class but are currently very low on confidence and coming in on the back of a home Trophy exit on Saturday. Borough conversely are flying with stalwart centre-half Neil Moore and striker Andy Brown easily as good as anything Halifax have to offer.

With home advantage, I have Nuneaton odds on but the offer price is currently around [2.38]. Another wild inaccuracy I think. We'll see if I'm right.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

3pts FOREST GREEN to beat Woking at [2.8]
3pts NUNEATON to beat HALIFAX at [2.38] or better in the Setanta Shield

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