Non-league / Gary Boswell / 14 November 2008 / 2

Before talking us through this weekend's tips, Gary Boswell takes time out to explain why Burton Albion are still worth backing for the Blue Square Premier (if you haven't already done so) under the leadership of Nigel Clough.

...... shows up Wrexham as the tip and Burton and Ebbsfleet as the value outsiders with safe lays on Mansfield,Stevenage,Rushden and last season's nearly men at Cambridge Utd.....(an extract from The Boz's pre-season BSP summary on Betting.Betfair.com)

There comes a defining moment in every football league season when the champions-elect emerge from the pack. Always easy to put your finger on in hindsight and the trick for betting purposes of course is seeing it when it happens - or preferably months in advance.

It usually happens around late October, early November - the time when Accrington beat Grays and then went on an unbeaten run into Xmas, when Dagenham first laid down the gauntlet to screaming odds-on shots Oxford, when Aldershot won three out of every four games whilst Torquay dithered over whether to ditch their goalie.

This season's defining moment may well have just happened in Blue Square Premier.

As with all good defining moments, it occurred whilst the world's media were looking the other way - in this case, all eyes were on last Saturday's glitzy FA Cup fare.

Quietly, in the background, Burton Albion survived a late onslaught engineered by Northwich Victoria's new manager - the notorious ex-Lewes supremo Steve King -and hung on to win 1-0 propelling them to the summit of the Non-League pyramid for the first time in the club's history.

When I identified them as one of two backable outsiders in this column in August, they were [22.0]. Best price now is [9.0] but it is still worth taking if you are not already on. The Albion get the chance to cement their lead this weekend with the gimme of all gimme games at the Dripping Pan in Lewes. I'd have had my doubts about the strength of this as a good thing if Steve King were still in charge in Sussex.

Burton have not been the most reliable of match bets over the years - often deeming to lose the games they looked nailed on to win on paper. Lewes, however, are a travesty of a football club currently in financial meltdown that started with King winning them promotion when the board didn't want it. On the pitch, the Lewes heads are down and if Burton are indeed going to go on and fulfil the destiny I prophesized in that pre-season rant, they have to win this one. [1.72] is likely best price you'll get but my advice is to swerve that in favour of the longer bet in the outrights where I would still consider them very good value.

That value is courtesy of it still being perceived as a very open year. The shortlist has had no more than ten names on it up to this point with even Forest Green and Salisbury being included before them flattering and then fluttering away. Kidderminster,Crawley and Kettering have also all had their moments but I have found reasons for crossing each of them off.

Torquay are still on it as a big danger and the even bigger red alert for me comes in the shape of Histon where Steve Fallon is a manger I rate almost as highly as Nigel Clough. Histon have a toughie on Saturday at home to Kettering which they will do well to win and their head is also still turned squarely toward the FA Cup where they could well waste a few weeks plotting the demise of Leeds United. Other than that, they look potentially the best playing squad in the league to my eyes and must still be covered.

You'll have noticed that Nigel Clough got Burton out of the FA Cup early this year! More fuel to last Saturday's result being a defining moment for me.

For the match bets this week, I've looked as always for the ones that look priced up wrong. Forest Green might be value at [2.3] to win at home to Altrincham now that they've finally broken their winless spell but the bigger odds disparity comes in Blue Square North where last week's other FA Cup heroes Blyth Spartans can be backed at [4.0] and bigger to win at Gainsborough Trinity. Harry Dunn's heroes have not won a single game all year away from home - hence the price - but if last week's heroics against Shrewsbury don't inspire them, nothing will. Trinity are one of those dour mid table sides who have themselves only won once at The Northolme all season and look a plum lay at any kind of odds on price you can wangle.

There's a lot of accurate price marking around in other games perhaps including the Stevenage versus Northwich fixture which the Non-League Pools panel have as one of their home bankers for this weekend. You'll remember though that the Vics now have the mercurial Steve King in charge - a manager who was simply too good for the level he was working at last year - and the new broom theory is often worth following especially when you remember what The Boz thinks of the Stevenage defence! I watched a Unibond Premier game on Wednesday night that finished 5-5 and a similar scoreline would not surprise me at Broadhall Way this weekend!

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

2pt LAY on Gainsborough Trinity at home to Blyth Spartans at [1.99] or under
0.5pt BACK on Northwich Victoria at [7.0] or greater to win at Stevenage
& don't forget the [9.0] on Burton Albion to win the BSP if you haven't already got your sheckels down.

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1. Daz | 14 November 2008

   Im firmly in the Torquay camp now as far as the leauge goes they seem to be playing some superb football at the moment and having had their dodgy spell I think they will win it. I still have faith in Crawley as well after seeing them last week and I really fancy them to beat Cambridge tomorrow.
   Isnt it great though that the league is so open with 10 teams still so closely matched in the betting unlike other leagues.

2. Paul | 14 November 2008

   Not even Steve King can turn water into wine quick enough for Northwich to win at Stevenage, who will push Torquay closest for the league, leaving Clough to get promotion in the play-offs. Crawley are a limited side whose front line doesn't have the guile to see off the better sides as the campaign progresses.

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