Non-league / Gary Boswell / 04 August 2008 / 2

Gary Boswell talks us through his ante-post portfolio approach to Non-League betting. Here he tells us who in the Blue Square Premier is a back, a lay and who is a no-play...

Thanks to those who emailed in to say that they liked the ratings table I produced prior to the Wimbledon Ladies tennis tournament. It did its job of identifying the winner and showing who was a safe lay. It's a method I like to use when planning ante-post portfolios and several have asked whether I do something similar for my winter specialism, non-league football.

Indeed I do although I have never published it in table form before so this is a Betfair exclusive! It uses the simple 1-5 rating in each category and shows up fairly accurately each year my pre-season tip as well as those safe lays that are so valuable to portfolio backers who also intend to trade in play during the season.

Here follows my Blue Square premier ratings for the top ten teams in the betting followed by one or two explanatory notes:

Which shows up Wrexham as the tip and Burton and Ebbsfleet as the value outsiders with safe lays on Mansfield, Stevenage, Rushden and last season's nearly men at Cambridge Utd.

Those who know my individual quirks will know that I rate the goalkeeper quality column one of the most influential in football pre-season portfolio betting. I consider it very significant that Torquay have landed the season long loan of Michael Poke who may well have won the title for the Gulls last season had he not been recalled by Southampton at that critical point in early February. Torquay will also be a back for my portfolio this year although it will not be a full strength recommendation whilst questions marks remain in certain areas - most notably the goalscoring category where Chris Zebroski may well have left a need to be filled hole from last year.

The Boz factor obviously plays a heavy part in the above table and takes in various personal perceptions and observations. Perhaps the most significant is the 1 rating given to market favourites Stevenage. This relates particularly to the fact that Borough are an overbet team every year and always trade consequently at a falsely short price in the market. The reason is to do with the history of their chairman Phil Wallace and current returning manager Graham Westley - a notorious figure in non-league football with a tremendous capacity to talk up his achievements and talent - something not borne out by his football managerial CV.

Stevenage have been pre-season market favourites in three of the last five seasons (and second favourite in the other two) and have yet to finish higher than fourth. Very much the club that struggles to deliver on its promise and one always to be wary of backing.

The two managers to receive the BOZ top score rating are Brian Little at Wrexham and Nigel Clough at Burton. The former is self explanatory when one considers that Little remains the only manager to have previously achieved the feat of taking a club straight back into the football league as Conference Champions (Darlington in 89/90).

He has also assembled an impressive squad of international players, experienced defenders and talented youth at the Racecourse and we'll see in the first game at home to favourites Stevenage just what the Dragons are made of. Very early in the season for such a crucial match!

There will be those surprised that I have given Clough top marks when he has expressed his own doubts about Burton's chances this season and rumours are also rife that his ten year tenure of the club is about to come to an end. Talk of him taking over at Nottingham Forest which in itself tells you why I rate him as a 5!

I'm not in Nigel's confidence of course but I've watched him for ten years now and know how seriously he takes life with the Brewers. He has always been on a mission there and each season has shown club progression to the stage where they are close to the much vaunted League position they crave. It has been such a patiently built progression that I personally will be amazed if Clough junior jumps ship now. One gets used to Nigel's downplaying style of commentary. He is not like his Dad in that respect. In other respects though..... and he definitely earns a BOZ managerial 5.His Dad was a 6!!

If Nigel goes, the club still scores sufficiently highly elsewhere for a new manager to still keep them in my top five teams for this season.

Some will be surprised that I have Cambridge on my LAY list - their being the strongest team left from last season's campaign as losing play-off finalists. Paul Tisdale showed at Exeter how that can be turned to positive effect as a learning experience for the following year.

Cambridge, however, have reacted with turmoil in the club - the unsettling departure of experienced manager Jimmy Quinn and a mass exodus of players including stable star Rob Wolleaston. A consolidation season at best under rookie Brabin or I'm a Dutchman's uncle. Which I ain't! And nor is Garry Hill at Rushden who remains one of the most experienced managers left in the Conference now and yet he only scores a 2 on the Bozometer?

The clue is in the phrase. One of the most experienced managers left in the Conference. Unlike Clough, Hill had his chance to get out with Dagenham and failed the test at the final hurdle. He's done nothing since in my eyes to suggest that he will take Rushden up as Champions this year. Several are impressed with the signing of the old Conference warhorse strikeforce Phillips and Clare.

I see both as players Torquay and Burton were not unhappy to release. The short Rushden price is because of these two but they were in fact a much better goalscoring force last pre-season with Simeon Jackson on board. And their price last pre-season was a much more realistic [20.0]. Rushden are a definite lay now at anything under [10.0].

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1. Daz | 06 August 2008

   Interesting that you are going for Wrexham after saying you always lay teams coming down. I think they will do well but play-offs at best. I think it might be Oxford's year this year. Patterson has got a strong looking squad together and he did well last season once he got his stamp on the team. I fancy Ebbsfleet and Grays to go close at bigger prices as well.

2. football betting | 13 August 2008

   I think Westley is the Gus Hiddink of that league IMO, he will play a strong part in making more points than is expected of him this season

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