Non-League Betting: It's all about keeping the faith

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 11 September 2008 / 1

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The Boz sides with the BSP whipping boys Lewes in tonight's Live on Setanta game....

There's some 5000/1 around on Lewes to win the Blue Square Premier this season which tells you the bookmakers' perception of the club. When Kidderminster were in this position under Jan Molby (and went on to win the league), the price was still under four figures. Bookmakers tend not to offer 5000/1 about anything they think is still possible.

And yet the boys from the Dripping Pan are only fourteen points off top with 38 games to go. Of their five defeats in the league so far, only the game against Weymouth has been against a side not in the top ten. Their opening day draw at Kidderminster was an unexpected indication that being competitive in this league was not beyond them and the draw against Ebbsfleet and being 1-0 up at Woking until the last five minutes were good efforts.

It's possible to put a positive spin on Lewes as they lead up to tonight's Live on Setanta despite the fans assertion that they've been 'second best in every game' and manager Kevin Keehan's despairing gripe that 'we simply don't show enough desire'.

Football is so often about the belief you have in yourself. Look at England in Croatia last night. Did anyone recognise that side?

I love games like this. Whether big club Rushden and Diamonds come and tonk them or not, The Boz becomes a Lewes fan for the day simply because of the odds on offer about them winning a game it is widely perceived that they have no chance in. Just as Droylsden had no chance of beating Oxford on the telly last season (they won 3-0).

What really inspires me to bet widely is the way Rushden have been priced up as though failure to win away from home is out of the question. You can Lay them tonight at [1.86] despite the fact that they come into this game with equal current form to Lewes (i.e. no wins in their last six games). I watched Rushden in their home game against Histon which I think it is fair to say was the dirtiest game of football I've seen since the 1980s. Rushden were the main culprits. Curtis Woodhouse and even Rob Wolleaston showed total lack of self-discipline. No surprise that they are top of the foul play table with 19 yellows and 2 reds already this season. And sides with poor discipline produce poor results. Fact.

Add in the stat about favourites in the live games on Setanta (including Croatia last night!!) and you get a strong marker toward the boys from the Dripping Pan having every chance of registering their first three points of the season. If only they and their fans will believe it! [5.0] on a Lewes win when I last looked and likely to drift further.

The bet which always excites me in games where anything is possible is the double result bet on the favourite leading at half time and the game turning round in the second. [40.0+] on that tonight where the true odds are 9/1 and that is what I call value - win or lose!

There are three fixtures to keep your eye on at the weekend featuring top ten teams who all still have credible title claims in this very open year. If you've won on Lewes, you might like to keep your match bet profits in your bank but, without attempting to call them, I consider the winners of the Crawley v Mansfield, Kettering v York and Salisbury v Barrow games all capable of going on to win the league. It's a narrowing down weekend for me so that the losers will be omitted from my season long portfolio. In the event of three draws, we will remain in an exceedingly open year!!

The eye is particularly on Mansfield. This is only their second serious test against top six opposition. They lost the first one and it's still possible that their top spot at the moment flatters to deceive. Win at Crawley though and they go in my book as new favourites for the league.

Blue Square North favourites Southport suffered a shock reverse at home to Alfreton last weekend and must steady the ship in their gimme fixture at home to Hucknall on Saturday. Many people's idea of a banker but whilst Southport have been wobbling, Redditch have started winning and Owen Story has found his scoring boots. The Reds visit to Gainsborough this weekend is a crunch game for them. If they can keep the momentum going and Southport have lost their faith, this league could also seriously open up to an outsider.

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Daz | 11 September 2008

I agree with you to a certain extent on the game tonight. I had the price of Rusden in my mind about the 11/10 mark and would have backed them at that price but as you say they are stupidly priced tonight. However I cant see Lewes winning. I was at the game you mentioned against Ebbsfleet and they offered very little and never looked like winning. Ebbsfleet had chances to win but just played a little flat on the day and couldnt do enough to do so. Im going to back the 1-0 Rushden win and have a saver on the draw as unless Gary Hill can get them going they will probably sturggle tonight.
As regards to teams winning the league it is looking very open as you say very hard to call at the moment, but I do think Farnborough will win the BGB Premier this season.