Non-League Betting Preview: Unfashionable Workington make an attractive bet

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 29 October 2009 / 2

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"The Boz's best bet:
Lay Telford against Workington at [1.9] or shorter."

As looks ahead to an action-packed weekend of non-league football, the Boz bids to rediscover his form with a couple of bankers.

After my failure to floor the favourites in the Cup last weekend and poor form in general, I came at this week with the express intention of identifying a couple of Boz bankers to get the points tally back on track.

In consultation with the Non-League Pools Panel, I emerged with two BSP home bankers which are leaders Oxford Utd at around the [1.41] mark to see off confirmed mid-tablers Altrincham at the Kassam and David Holdsworth's rampant Mansfield stags at around [1.89] to continue the relatively poor season form of Histon.

Neither tip looks opposable at first sight because Oxford have been imperious at home this season - winning seven and drawing just one of their eight so far - whilst Mansfield have also won six from eight at Field Mill with only the defeat against fellow play-off contenders Stevenage to blot the copybook.

Whilst agreeing with my Pools panel colleagues on the likely outcomes, the question still remains whether I consider either a worthwhile bet at the odds and were I not in such poor current form, I know my answer would be a resounding no.

I tried opposing Oxford last weekend at value odds and they are the same again this weekend against much higher level opponents who have a good on the road record with only two defeats - against Kettering and Kidderminster - to blot the copybook.

Logic dictates therefore that if I thought Oxford could fail to win last weekend, there's an even bigger chance this - up against Heathcote's well marshalled Robins who have only conceded seven in their eight games on the road. Stuart Coburn remains in fine fettle in goal and the more I delve in, the more I get drawn toward my usual policy of going goggle eyed at the Altrincham price of [10.5] a win. That for a side who have won 50% of their road games in the league so far this season - including one at top ten team Rushden & Diamonds.

So the value and The Boz instinct lies in backing Altrincham to win but the fact remains that Oxford are showing no sign of being anything other than the league's dominant team. As I'm going Oxford as a predictor I feel unable to go Altrincham as a gambler and my policy is therefore to leave the single bet alone and look elsewhere. Such is the fragility of confidence!

Mansfield provide a similar dilemma. Just about as a predictor of likely outcomes but all the betting value once more lies in Histon at [5.0]. In current form again, a leave alone!

Which takes me down to the Blue Square North where Betfair liquidity is rockier but The Boz's match betting success rate is far greater! Just one bet. Laying AFC Telford at [1.9] or less at home to Workington Reds.

Reds 0-3 defeat to Rushden in the FA Cup last weekend was a blow to the hopes of financial injection at Borough Park but no more than an expected blip to the current form against better class opposition - a fact I don't think is represented in the book as Workington continue to be classed an 'unfashionable' side with the oddsmakers.

That's to our benefit. Telford are basically the same team as Workington in form terms and do have home advantage so I'd concede [2.2] or [2.1] the Bucks but [1.9] is way too short and thus we can have the Reds at a serious value price - [4.5] to win.

Workington are without Cook up front now (seen scoring goals in the league last week) but have both Wright Brothers fit and firing. The 4-3-3 is a formation several teams struggle to oppose when the midfield is blocked with the feisty likes of Vipond and Hopper. No easy ride for Telford - a seriously attractive bet.

The Boz's best bet:

Lay Telford against Workington at [1.9] or shorter

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Bradley | 30 October 2009

Does an event where there is currently 4 quid matched and will not total than a couple of hundred deserve a page in a betting blog when there a hundreds of proper sporting events taking place this weekend?
garyboswell | 30 October 2009

There speaks a lover of non-league football. And someone who has clued into the art of watching where the bookmakers eyes are off! Mind, you have a point Bradley. There'll only be more matched if we match it.