Non-league / Gary Boswell / 08 February 2008 /

Just the one betting tip from the world of Non-League football betting from the Boz this weekend...

I don't profess to know how serious a role Lady Luck plays in the development of punting strategies - how it should be quantified or whether indeed it is a factor at all if one believes in the statistical science aspect.

All I do know is that since I landed a few tasty bets just before Christmas, my luck has been out the window with the fairies and making mates out of them piles of dog poo that I can't shift off our front lawn!

I did learn a good lesson many moons ago from a punting mentor in Lancaster who spotted me cursing my losing luck with a consoling fiver on an unconsidered outsider (just in case it should turn my fortunes). He explained the very human failing that is chasing one's losses and how it was an understandable emotional condition but also a fast track to the poor house. I already knew that of course but what I hadn't clocked until he showed me was the importance of reducing one's staking - and indeed the total activity volume - during losing runs. Like most people, I tend naturally to bet more when losing and still to this day have to remind myself that the smart punter steps back and reduces bets, thus reducing losses, during a bad patch. Makes perfect sense of course when you consider it logically. Soon as you are winning again, step back up.

And so The Boz has narrowed his bets this weekend to just one. The team that have been winning for me are Solihull Moors after they initially scuppered my bet on home town Redditch two weeks ago. I've tracked them since and fancy them to win again this weekend at home to Vauxhall Motors. They are very much a form side with 13 points from the last eighteen which has seen them clamber up from the BSN relegation mire. Veteran manager Bob Faulkner made his name with the Moor Green team that merged with Solihull last season and it is perhaps not surprising that he has taken a while to bed success into the new set up. The presence of ex-Coventry City dynamo Andy Ducros (who grew up in the same road that I did!!) and Redditch's free kick specialist Simon Hollis had me expecting good things from the Moors this season but there early form was poor. One of the factors to change them since Xmas seems to be the arrival between the sticks of Simon Lynn who has also won a place in the British Universities team and will go to the Games in April. He is not a fixture at the moment but his arrival and the sudden ceasing of the avalanche of concedes that dogged early season form is to my mind no coincidence. A keen young goalkeeper is the bedrock of many a team that The Boz will be happy betting on.

At the other end of the field, midfielder-cum-striker Tim Gould is showing a modicum of class at this level and I'm confident the Moors will land the only Boz bet of the weekend against a struggling Motors so long as Lady Luck behaves herself.

Which means I won't be getting involved in the Two Live on Setanta games. The first between Cambridge and Stevenage is in any case a very tight call.

Both teams were tonked by Exeter last time out and both have questionable current form making confident prediction awkward. On a purely price front, the [3.2] about Stevenage is interesting and quite likely a knee jerk reaction to the 4-0 drubbing that Borough got last weekend. If you read this column regularly, you'll know that Stevenage are traditionally underpriced so this is one of those rare times when Borough do actually offer you the right price in relation to their chance. Will they win? Not confident.

With twelve goals in their last two cup games, it is easier to be confident about Crawley who do offer seriously good value at [3.8] away at Forest Green on Sunday. Brazilian wunderkid, Magno Viera is on fire for the Red Devils following his release from Carlisle last year and they can't stop scoring generally as a team at the moment.

If you saw Forest Green defending on Monday against Woking in the Setanta Shield, you'll fear for them at the New Lawn. They have a problem with playing in front of the cameras and goalkeeper Ryan Robinson seems to me to have seriously lost the early ability he showed (couldn't catch a cross all night).

Despite having a soft spot for Forest Green, I'd think they were a fantastic Lay on Sunday at around [2.4] if it wasn't for my form of the moment and the niggling feeling that Stuart Fleetwood has been off the radar for FGR whilst his move to Crewe and Gillingham was under the media spotlight. There's a maybe that this is the day he'll come back with a hatful of goals.I might play on the above 2.5 goals market on this one because both teams can usually find the onion bag but if Solihull Moors win on Saturday, I might do as the Pontoon player and stick. And if Moors don't win, I'm off in a sulk and definitely not playing!

RECOMMENDATION:

2pts SOLIHULL MOORS @1.87 to beat VAUXHALL MOTORS

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