Non-league / Gary Boswell / 31 January 2008 /

Gary Boswell gives us the lowdown on the betting as Altrincham and Woking meet in Setanta's live match plus the best of the rest from the weekend action

The weekend kicks off on Thursday night with the Live on Setanta fixture between Altrincham and Woking. I speculated as to the favourite in this one in the early exchanges and am not surprised to see the Cards trading shorter now but am pleasantly surprised by just how long the current price is on the Robins -[2.96] strikes me as a pretty good value punt.

Sole and Morgan have added some recent spark to the Cards attack and their early season mediocrity and tendency to draws is disappearing. I, however, am a Little and Senior fan and I like the way Graham Heathcote has refused to accept any more red faces and dragged his troops up out of the relegation mire in the weeks since Christmas.

They gave a real good account of themselves at Cambridge last Saturday and were unlucky not to nick a point and I think the teeth will be gritted for this one as they see Woking as one of the teams just above to be overhauled if the run can be continued. Stuart Coburn in the Robins goal is always a concern and the defensive record over the season is poor so that Woking will definitely fancy their chances but in a very tight game to call, I go against the majority and just favour grit,determination and home advantage to gain the day and prove betting value at the aforementioned [2.96].

Those of you who play the under and over goals markets might like to note that Woking have one of the sparsest scoring records of any side in any league with just 26 goals from 29 games.You'd be forgiven for immediately jumping up to bet on the under 2.5 goals in this game. Trouble with that approach - despite the feeling that it might be a cautious game that neither side wants to risk losing - is that Altrincham have one of the worst concede records of any league, running at well over two goals a game!

There are some easier games to call on Saturday - whilst the FA Trophy takes away many of the big guns - and pennies may be well advised to remain in pockets til then. Three home bankers in the North & South which strike me as the main bets this week. Solihull Moors are on a serious upcurve and did for me at Redditch last weekend. Time to get the money back. They can bury the Railwaymen of Leigh RMI who have been struggling for the last two seasons and have a serious defensive weakness. Worcester City - buoyed by the new stadium news - can see off Blyth whose away form is also dire.

The absolute banker of the weekend though has to be Steve King's Lewes in the South as they seek to keep the Eastbourne challenge to their title elect at bay. Bognor will be lucky not to receive the mandatory mauling at the Dripping Pan!

For those who like to take THE BOZ's portfolio approach to Outright markets, there's a play in the FA Trophy where this weekend's match betting has been studied but totally dismissed as trappy in the extreme. The big problem still being how seriously the big boys will take this weekend with the BSP Play-offs assumed as a priority. Not a certainty that though as a trip to the New Wembley has revitalised the competition in Non-League eyes and managers like Nigel Clough and Paul Buckle look keen to keep their teams in as insurance against not getting the fans to Wembley for the play-off final.

My system is still to back those at good prices with an outside chance who face each other in the last sixteen with a couple at good prices to be hedged against then guaranteed for the quarter final stage.

Post Halifax at [21.0] and opponents Rushden & Diamonds at [21.0] on the outrights. Also Stafford at [34.0] and Tamworth at [67.00] to level stakes.

This guarantees two in the last eight with the idea being to back their drawn opponents again in the next round to guarantee two in the semis at decent returns when it is almost always possible to 'go green' by either hedging what you've already got or backing those who remain uncovered. It's all down to the maths of course and best in markets where favourites are vulnerable but especially in betfair markets (as opposed to traditional bookmaker markets) that are almost always working at 100% over-rounds.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt SOLIHULL MOORS to beat LEIGH RMI
1pt WORCESTER to beat BLYTH
1pt LEWES to beat BOGNOR

1pt HALIFAX at 21.0
1pt RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS at 21.0
1pt STAFFORD at 34.0
1pt TAMWORTH at 67.0
all on the FA TROPHY outrights

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