Non-league / Gary Boswell / 17 January 2008 / 1

The Boz's Non-League Betting Blog

THE BOZ's Non-League Betting Blog

Burton's defeat of Torquay last Monday caused the expected knee jerk at sponsoring bookmakers Blue Square who responded by cutting Aldershot to odds-on title favourites for the first time this season (first time ever I hear the Shots fans holler!).

Betfair has much more intelligent odds-makers at play and Aldershot remain [2.6] to back for the title which admirably reflects that they have their tough patch coming up. Eight of the next nine games are challenging on paper for a side that has a record of only one win, one draw and two losses against the other top five sides. Aldershot will do well to make a 13 or 14 point haul from this period up to March 4th. Torquay and Burton by contrast are coming into a patch where games are, on paper, a trifle easier and each with a game in hand, it is not at all inconceivable that by the time Aldershot play Torquay on March 4th, the seven point gap will be closed.

This weekend's Aldershot-Forest Green fixture is the key to showing how much Championship fibre is in them Shots. I remain reasonably confident that we have the right teams covered but Torquay are a dangerous thorn and any opportunity to hedge a little in the outrights market - if Torquay drift to [4.0] or Aldershot harden toward [2.0] - might be prudent. There's still a way to go and I still fancy Burton even if Nigel Clough and Daryl Clare don't (kidology based on the lead Aldershot have established and the fact that if Aldershot win everything from here, they are champs -which of course they will deserve to be. Miracles like that don't come cheap!!).

Actual bets in this weekend's Blue Square Premier matches have been hard to find again with a lot of results still proving unpredictable. One stat that caught my eye was the remarkably low incidence of draws in this season's Conference Premier overall. Aldershot being a main proponent of that of course with a remarkable one from twenty six games.

Statistically, there has to be an evening out of this phenomenon and I've gone in search of the levels yer devils this weekend with Histon-Ebbsfleet coming out top of my pile. Both teams have a star striker that is currently making a name for himself - Antonio Murray for the Stutes and the mightily impressive Stacey Long for Fleet - and both have a very realistic chance of a first ever Conference Premier play-off place if they can keep themselves together over the next few months.

This is a game neither will want to lose and a fair call for a draw on form. You can expect a price upwards of [3.6] if you ask for it. The four others on my plausible draw list are - Rushden-Crawley, Halifax-Stafford, Salisbury-Torquay & Weymouth-Woking with the latter being the other one to tempt me to bet. Woking are always good for a draw and still top the incidence list (with Exeter & Rushden) in a sparse year.

This Sunday's Live on Setanta game is a formality on paper. Oxford continue to be the season's great underachievers and will do well to get anything at fortress St James. The Grecians do have a tendency to draw at home so that it is hard to be that confident about an Exeter win at odds on but anything greater than [2.0] might tempt me with James Mackie still in good goalscoring form.
The draw is probably the value bet here as well though with one eye mindful that the favourites still have an appalling, below 30% hit-rate in the Live Setanta games.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt BACK the draw Histon-Ebbsfleet at [3.6] or greater
1pt BACK the draw Weymouth-Woking
1pt BACK the draw Exeter-Oxford

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1. ferdyboswell | 19 January 2008

   Guess it all hinges on the weather! Exeter might win if it rains!

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