Non-league / Gary Boswell / 23 August 2007 /

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season.He scored 100% success rate with his tips for Betfair in last season's Conference South and also correctly identified all three Conference play-off winners - Salisbury,Farsley Celtic & Morecambe).

For 90% of the time, football prediction is a scientific exercise for me. Cause and effect, analysis of statistical data, balance of probabilities, study and research. Then Ryan Robinson will go needlessly down on his knees in the 92nd minute and give away a penalty he had no need to concede and I throw all the textbooks in the air in frustration and start consulting the astrological charts!!

Intuition and superstition are the other 10% of my methodology and whenever I've had a brilliantly researched bet scuppered by bad luck, I tend to increase their quota to 20%!

And one of my biggest superstitions of all is never trust the form books on bank holiday weekends! The Blue Square Premier,North and South have a clutch of solid looking short price bankers for Saturday and I'll be leaving nearly all of them alone.

Oxford should murder a puny looking Stafford but 1.5 might be the best we can get and I'll leave it at that price simply because Oxford had trouble scoring at home last season and struggled again on the opening day until Ryan Robinson came along (see above!!). Not entirely convinced by the Bald Eagle's boys yet although it does look clear that Stafford will spend all season at the root.

Tamworth and Harrogate have made decent starts in the North and play lesser opposition but the Lambs were 1.57 when I looked and that puts me off after they lost to Redditch last midweek. Harrogate go to the Railwaymen of Leigh RMI and there was some 2.3 on Betfair whereas the bookies offer 1.93 so I might be tempted by that but I haven't seen the Yorkshiremen so far this season which always makes me cautious. I put this up as a tentative simply because I have seen Leigh RMI who look slightly better than last season but very dour and likely to be bottom end again rather than anything flashy.

Nap in the South is Havant and Waterlooville to beat Hayes and Yeading which sounds more likes a ladies doubles match at Wimbledon but should net us a pound or two even if the price is extremely stingey.

All of those are short pricers so with the Bank Holiday superstition against favourites, I cast around for a longshot and lo and behold, Betfair didn't let me down. The Bloods of Droylsden are up at 3.2 to win at home against Exeter in the Premier when bookies go best priced 2.88.

The form crew will argue that Exeter are a class above the newly promoteds but I watched the Grecians labour against York on the telly on Monday and beg to differ.

Droylsden possess the best player in the exciting if somewhat temperamental Chrissy Denham who will take the Exeter back four on and has the potential to murder Exeter's Achilles in the left back position. Add to this that Exeter had a poor away record last season for a top side - only eight wins on the road out of twenty three - whilst the Bloods were impregnable at the Butchers Arms with only one defeat.

Dave Pace's new boys squandered their chance to win at home on opening day with an early red card for Gareth Morris and that temperament element would be my main reason for not making this a maximum bet. I'm keen though and you can approach by either laying Exeter or playing the Bloods at the brilliant 3.2 with a level stake the draw.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt Droylsden to beat Exeter at 3.2
1pt the Droylsden-Exeter draw at 3.3 or better
1pt Harrogate to beat Leigh RMI at 2.3 or better
0.5pt Havant & Waterlooville to beat Hayes & Yeading

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