Non-league / Gary Boswell / 14 February 2008 / 1

Gary Boswell predicts the return of the stalemate to non-league football

A bunch of extremely tight calls in the Blue Square Premier this weekend starting with tonight's Live on Setanta between Crawley and Ebbsfleet. It's quite easy to construct an argument for all three outcomes with Crawley having an excellent home record, Ebbsfleet being the stronger overall outfit with an outside chance of a play-off place to aim at and the draw a distinct possibility as in any tight game. The odds of [2.26] on Crawley are accurate and represent the best match bet call but if you are betting, you are a braver man than me!

Eagle-eyed observers will have spotted that six of the seven midweek games ended all-square which has a significance for the rest of the season's match betting strategies.

There is always an increase in draw incidence as a season draws to its close. Mid-table handshakers and inferior relegation outfits grateful for a point always tends to up the ante as we approach the song of the swan.

This year has been a particularly unusual first half season in the BSP courtesy of its paucity of draws. I don't ever remember a Boxing Day fixture list without a single draw on the coupon and that stat has been replicated several times with draw incidence down as low as 18% at one point.

The midweek fare could well be the beginning of that stat levelling out and draws should be in everyone's calculations from now on - especially when they often represent the best value in any given match bet. Helps on weeks like this when weighing up result prediction is particularly tricky!

My strategy this weekend is a typical Boz one. No bets in the interesting top of the table clashes for three reasons. One, I've got all the relevant teams covered in my season long portfolio which is still ticking nicely and looking on course to land me an overall season profit (enough even to wipe the match bet losses of the last few dreadful weeks!). Two, the odds on all those games are cramped anyway as one would expect at this time of year with all eyes swivelled at those games (what punter starts pricing up wrong at this stage of the season?). And three, individual match outcomes are increasingly difficult to call in the games at the top end - especially in a league as open as the BSP.

So no bets at the top for Boz and I will let Sunday's humdinger between Aldershot and Stevenage run through as a spectacle only.

The place I've been looking for a match bet is down the bottom where overlong prices can still be found on teams considered no-hopers because of their relegation status. Droylsden are as big as [9.0] to win away at Oxford. That's tempting when you consider that these two are vying for the most disappointing team of the year award!

Laying Oxford at [1.56] is VERY tempting considering the higher incidence of draws that we can now expect and both these two fit the bill of mid table handshaker versus glad for a point relegationer.

The down side of this one is that when Droylsden are poor, they are desperately poor and although they have shown two or three times that they are capable of a win such as this (including beating Oxford 3-1 at the Butchers earlier in the season), I have had no luck pinpointing their good days and they are running into an Oxford side who have seemingly buried some of their demons. Although I like the price, I can't quite see a collect on it.

Better is a lay on Rushden & Diamonds at around [2.1] against Altrincham. The Robins are seriously kicking against the prospect of the drop and might even win this against a less than inspiring Rushden who have two Cup games to focus on and nothing at all to play for in the league.

Recommendation:
2pt LAY on Rushden & Diamonds against Altrincham at around [2.1]

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1. Mick Stubbles | 15 February 2008

   That has been backed down gary. Good luck though.

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