Non-league / Gary Boswell / 24 January 2008 /

Gary Boswell takes a look at the non-league action ahead...

The world and his wife thinks Stevenage will beat Farsley Celtic Live on Setanta tonight. There's over £30,000 staked as I write in the early morning with still ten hours to kick off! And it's sure to keep on multiplying as the day goes on. Stevenage are the non-league side that have always attracted the money. Whether they are winning or not. They are almost always over bet - or very popular with punters - whichever way you choose to see these things. Their price -[1.59] on the exchange as I write, sure to keep changing - is therefore often artificial and following Stevenage always has to be done with caution.

Trouble with tonight's game is that I think they'll win aswell. On balance. They come to Throstle's Nest as the side in form. Six wins from the past seven league games. Peter Taylor has steadied the ship that Mark Stimson rocked by leaving and he has fundamentally redesigned the team without it noticeably affecting their league position. Tonight can be seen as their game in hand of Aldershot - which if they win it will leave them just three points adrift in preparation for the head to head at the Recreation Ground on Feb 16.

Farsley, by contrast, have won just one of their last twelve league games and have slipped into the relegation positions for the first time. It is easy to see them as one of the 'minnows' of this division now - stripped of their influential manager Lee Sinnot - and the price of [6.8] on a Farsley win is big but realistic. With the devastating Calum Willock added to goal machine Steve Morison up front for Stevenage, this could easily be a rout.

That's a seductive way of thinking and excuse me for not going overboard on it. My two restraints are the Stalybridge defeat on Tuesday which taught me for the hundredth time that there is no such thing as a certainty in non-league football and the fact that I am always suspicious when Stevenage are a short price to win anything!

You can also argue that Farsley come into the game ready for a win. They were unlucky to get nothing from the visit to Kidderminster on Saturday after leading and being good for a 3-0 lead at half time according to some. Curtis Aspden has been an impressive goalkeeping acquisition and I'm always impressed with Pakistan international Amjad Iqbal for Celtic who will seriously need to start winning now if they are going to escape the one season drop that beckons for them - and fellow Conference North promotees Droylsden.

You can probably hear me wanting Farsley whilst expecting Stevenage so I'm staying out of the match bet and moving instead to the correct score market where I'll be playing on the any other score option [currently 6.4]. This is basically a bet that one of the teams will score four or more and whichever way it goes in terms of final result, I am definitely expecting a hatful of goals.

Whatever the result tonight, Saturday's York-Aldershot game will be fascinating with the Minstermen very much in form and the Shots needing to bounce back after Saturday's home reverse against Forest Green. If you take that result away, you wouldn't have got [2.7] on Aldershot considering their season's away form (nine wins from thirteen) so that can be considered value if you don't believe a Shot's slump is imminent.

After being suckered into backing Stalybridge on Tuesday on the back of an eight game winning streak (really Boswell have you completely forgotten about Murphy's Law!!!), I'm very nervous about recommending a short priced home banker in the Blue Square North. Courage required to follow me this week and I'll not hold it against you if you do as we did on Fleet Street last year to the infamous 'Telegraph tipster' and simply backed against his tip each week with great success. That said, I'm determined to get straight back on my bicycle after the wheels fell off Tuesday. I simply cannot see Redditch United doing anything other than beating Solihull Moors at the Valley on Saturday and any price greater than [1.9] will have me gritting my teeth and backing it!

RECOMMENDATIONS:

- 2pts Redditch United to beat Solihull Moors at [1.9] or greater

- 1pt on the Any Other Score option in the Farsley-Stevenage Live on Setanta

- 1pt Aldershot at [2.7] or greater to beat York

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: