Non-league / Gary Boswell / 08 August 2007 /

Doing your homework is all-important when setting off on a winning trail

I've heard it argued that the season long championship portfolio bet is boring and is blighted with the serious disadvantage of tying up your betting bank for more than nine months. I suppose boring is a subjective term but if you get your kicks from the excitement of in-play match betting then maybe I'll concede that the weekly thrill of checking how your teams have fared in the classified football results is less high octane.

For me though, it's no less enjoyable and when you consider that there is no need for a weekly betting bank - effectively making it a weekly free bet - I still think it has a lot going for it. Yes it can tie your capital up but I'm not against that on bets that have a high performance success rate - which my championship portfolio bets always have had. The profit is 'a better return than the building society give me' is how I like to look at it with that weekly free betting thrill thrown in!

So how does it work? Simple really. Work out before the season which teams you are with as possible championship winners and back them at best odds and lay all those that have no hope in hell of winning the league at shortest you can get. I also like to have a neutral pile for those teams on which I have no strong opinion and balance my lay stakes to exceed my back stakes so that there is a plus result should one of the neutrals prevail. Personally, I also like to create a mythical 100 per cent round market of my own to use as my guide when deciding whether to back or lay at the current odds on offer. This is particularly helpful in weighing up whether favourites are a false price but also makes you become analytical about every bet you place.

Of course, because Betfair keep championship markets in-play all season, there are plenty of chances to hedge as the weeks go by and the nuances of winning runs for unfancied teams and losing runs for fancied teams kick in.

There are also plenty of other subtle strategies that you can build in to your portfolio approach. A good pre-season exercise is to go through each team's first six games and try to work out whether the current price accurately reflects where the team will be after their early games.

Favourites with tough starts can be laid even if you want them on your side in the long term, as their price could drift if they struggle through their first games. You can then make them a plus side in your portfolio by backing at a preferential price thus maximising profit on the other possible winners.

Choices for sides to be plus and minus about is down to the individual and if you are not that familiar with the ins and outs of non-league football, creating a portfolio on these leagues may be a little daunting. Remember though that 79 Blue Square Premier games are due to be screened live on Setanta this season giving you plenty of chance to assess the form and to help you along the way. With that in mind, here is Boswell's list of top ten teams that are currently trading at the wrong price on Betfair (in my opinion of course!):

No.1 Forest Green Rovers - Outsiders in everybody's book because of their profile as a Conference Premier relegation struggler. That was before Jim Harvey arrived. He turned their season from October onwards last year largely courtesy of the remarkable stat of thirteen draws away from home (only nine defeats). He has assembled a stronger squad for this season and has never had a team outside the top half in the Conference. I've projected a conservative 10 points from their first six games (they could do better) and if there's a Dagenham and Redbridge in this year's league, this is they. I have them at 21.0 in my mythical market!

No.2 Farsley Celtic - My candidates for the new boys who could be in the top six by the end (there's always one who has a great first season in the top flight). I've projected three home wins in their first six and although they can't win the league as part-timers and have suffered some injury setbacks pre-season, they are worth a minimum bet to be hedged when the price contracts simply because they are not 100 outsiders in my book and will shock a few this season. Manager Lee Sinnot is one of the non-league hotpots as is utility player Amjad Iqbal.

No.3 Oxford United - Last season's wobblers are a short price again and have a toughish first six. Lay now at short price to back if they drift to double figures.

No.4 Torquay United - No relegated club has gone back up as champions in recent years and the Gulls will pull off a masterstroke to buck that trend in such a competitive league. They have compiled a reasonable squad and will perhaps be competitive but the price is a mile off. Serious strong Boswell lay!

No.5 Stevenage Borough - The perennial non-league talking horse always underpriced, always the false fav! Laid them at 5.5 last season when they finished in the eighth place that was the pre-season prediction. They might make top five this season with money spent and a stronger squad. Striker Steve Morison is also a positive but the price is way under their realistic chance. 11.0 in my market.

No.6 Burton Albion - Back to Backing as Nigel Clough's up-curve is set to continue. Albion boast the most experienced squad in the league and look set to improve on last season's sixth place. 9.0 and not far off favourites in my market.

No.7 Rushden & Diamonds - Also fancied to continue the strong run they ended last season under Garry Hill and with an easy first three games, could be initial leaders. I will be hedging them if and when their price drops below 6.0

No.8 Blyth Spratans - Not much going on in Betfair's Blue Square North market but Harry Dunn's troops are set to go better than last season's seventh and look to have been underestimated. 12.0 in my market.

No.9 Newport County - Robbed of a play-off place last season by the fixture backlog, I expect Beadle's boys to have a laugh early on this season.They are my favourites in an open Blue Square South. Back at anything longer than 8.0

No.10 Havant & Waterlooville - Not my favourites and worth a lay but only if you can get them down to single figures.

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