Non-league / Gary Boswell / 07 January 2008 /

Non-League fanatic Gary Boswell tells us why the odds are about right as Torquay play hosts to Burton in tonight's live Setanta match

Well, we had our FA Cup fun with Chasetown and Cambridge taking the lead and the level stakes "lay the league team" strategy was brought to fruition by the brilliance of Havant's Rocky Baptiste (mind you, the Havant crossbar gets the Boz Man of the Match award!). But it's back to the serious business now as Torquay host Burton Live on the Telly with the Blue Square Premier title at stake.

The outrights portfolio is set up such that my allegiance will be no surprise. What is a slight surprise is the way the Gulls are trading at around even money on the Betfair markets. That's the first time this season that the home team from the top four has not been around 1.7 for a game against a fellow top four side. Indicative perhaps that the halcyon days for non-league specialist punters are over - losing their edge courtesy of the increased exposure that the regular Setanta coverage has brought. There was a time when there was just me and Gary from Bristol burning rubber on the UK highways getting to obscure games to get the edge over odds compilers sat in their ivory towers and using pure results and stats to form their markets.

Regular television coverage means the Blue Square Premier match markets are getting more and more accurate and there is less and less opportunity for the edge.

If you feel the same, time perhaps to step down to Blue Square North and the Unibond Premier! Mind you, you can even see those games these days courtesy of the amazing internet! Good job we like watching the football even more than we do winning on the betting!

So, laying Torquay at 1.7 is not an option like it was when they hosted Cambridge and when Stevenage were at home to Burton. And at around [2.0], I have to confess to being reasonably interested in backing Torquay. Not far off value with the likes of Tim Sills and Chris Zebroski likely to cause the Burton defence some headaches.

My overall allegiance hasn't changed enough though. Yes, Torquay are good going forward with Kevin Nicholson's dead ball delivery and Todd and Robertson's aerial threat from the back still a certain avenue for goalscoring.

They simply don't impress me as a Championship defence, however, and the replacing Rayner with Rice in goal doesn't seem to have made the difference Paul Buckle was hoping for. They are still liable to ship goals for me and Burton's Edwards,Clare and Harrad are likely to benefit.

Main reason for not wanting to back Torquay at any price, however, is the way they fielded a second team and 'threw' their Setanta Shield game against St Albans. Whatever you think of that 'anti-cup' strategy morally, I think it actually damages players' mentality and in the long term, I'm never with sides who practice it to its worst excesses.

Torquay may win (and they need to if they are going to keep tabs on an Aldershot side who keep threatening to pull away) but the value, despite the more accurate pricing, is in opposing them. I already have that covered in my outrights so have no great necessity to play in the match markets. I intend to enjoy the game instead! And if you haven't laid Torquay on the outrights yet, they can be taken now at [3.45] which will look a great get if they don't win this and stay six or seven points adrift.

RECOMMENDATION:

No match bet but a lay on Torquay in the outrights at 3.45 if you don't already have that covered.

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