Non-league / Editor / 03 April 2008 /

Gary Boswell's non-league football blog. "Tonight's Setanta Shield final Live on TV throws up a potential 'wrong price' that requires serious study."

There was widespread fury in non-league circles when it was announced that this re-incarnation of the Non-League cup would be staged as a home game for champions elect Aldershot Town. Oddsmakers have gone extreme in making it a gimme for the Shots especially as the Diamonds form has dipped in the current form table since their presence in this final was established. No wins in their last four games but with nothing to play for in the league, it can be argued that Garry Hill's Mob have been saving themselves for this and the [5.9] price currently on offer could represent outstanding value. Rushden are an underachieving club this season but the fillip gained by achieving status for the stadium as an Olympic 2012 venue got everybody involved in the club on a high again and they prioritised this competition as their chance to rescue some silverware from otherwise mediocrity.

Of course the Shots will not be an easy conquest but Rushden's away form is also some comfort to those incensed by how Aldershot were given home advantage. Andy Gooding has been a valuable addition to the Diamond's playing ranks since he defected on his loan arrangement from Coventry that had earlier in the season had him pushing for promotion with Burton. I rate his contribution at this level and with Challinor, he can cause some headaches for an Aldershot defence that has been able to ship goals all season.

It could easily be a high scoring affair with Aldershot on their way to a 100 goal season and the secret of their success in this competition throughout has been to simply try and score more than they will concede. With first string goalkeeper Nikki Bull taking no part throughout, it will be interesting to see if he starts tonight. If he does, I will be lowering my stakes on Rushden as his presence will indicate that the Shots are not treating this as a relaxing diversion from their dominance of the league as they have done in all qualifying games to this point.

Both it and the Stevenage-Exeter Live game on Saturday are in truth small stakes affairs. All three results possible in this critical play-off six pointer. Peter Taylor's Borough have been as predictable as the British weather in recent weeks and whilst it is possible to fancy them at odds against after a morale boosting home win against York in the week, it is just as easy to imagine the Grecians showing their determination to get into the play-offs whilst all around are wobbling. I'm plumping for the draw by default but it is by no means a strong prediction.

Much better bets are in the Blue Square North this weekend. I'm very keen on Barrow to continue their outstanding mid-season push toward the play-offs against Alfreton. Odds of [1.7] will represent decent value and I seriously rate the Bluebirds chance now both of making the play-offs and of the possibility of being a Premier side next season. That seemed highly unlikely in the Autumn under Phil Wilson but Sherdian & Bayliss are doing a fantastic job from the dugout and Nick Rogan and Jason Walker rate as the division's premier strikeforce at the moment.

I saw Harrogate Town at Redditch last Saturday and Darren Dunning did the business for them against a Reds side content with their mid-table position. This was a reversal in current form for the Gate though who are odds on at home to relegation battlers Hinckley United on Saturday. This is another value opportunity for the Boz as the Knitters are having a real go at getting out of the trouble they've been in all season. Gate dropped points at home to Leigh RMI two weeks ago and have been vulnerable recently at Wetherby Road. I recommend laying them at anything under [1.6] this weekend as Dean Thomas has finally got the Knitters remembering that they were a play-off finalist last season.

The Premier Houdini-act, Northwich Victoria, are a nap this weekend to continue their great escape with a win at home to hopeless Stafford Rangers. Manager Dino Maamria (now renamed 'Houdino') has been named Blue Square Premier manager of the month for March which sounds the alarm bells in some quarters as the award is widely regarded as a curse that ensures defeat in your next game. The Vics have won three times for the Boz in the past ten days so I shall be ignoring the superstition and having a loyal point on them again this week although the price does mean that I do not consider it a value bet.

Recommendations:

3pts BACK on Barrow to beat Alfreton at [1.7] or greater
3pts LAY on Harrogate against Hinckley at [1.6] or less
1pt BACK on Northwich Victoria to beat Stafford Rangers

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