MLS Betting: San Jose to shake up Kansas City

Dave Farrar
17 August 2019

San Jose have won six of their last nine MLS games

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Dave Farrar predicts Los Angeles FC will continue to reward bets on Overs, while NYCFC and the Earthquakes are simply too strong on their travels...

“RSL have scored at least three goals in three of their last four home games in MLS, while four of LAFC’s last five have gone over that mark as well.”

LAFC guarantee Overs

Real Salt Lake v LAFC
Sunday, 03:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

LAFC are currently ten points clear in the Supporters Shield standings and are cruising towards the postseason, where the new MLS play off format will give them a big advantage.

Their eyes remain set on a strong finish to the regular season though, and they head to an RSL team who start the weekend in fourth place in a tight looking Western Conference, only three points ahead of Portland Timbers in seventh.

Goals have been a theme for LAFC throughout most of the season, and Over 3.5 Goals have always looked to be a relatively safe investment in their matches, especially at home. The fact that they're away from home means that we can back that eventuality at the 2.47/5 mark, and that seems like the sensible thing to do.

RSL have scored at least three goals in three of their last four home games in MLS, while four of LAFC's last five have gone over that mark as well. Last weekend's 4-2 win over the New York Red Bulls was typical of their irrepressible recent form.

So it's an obvious call, but a useful one, as we jump on board the LAFC goal train once more.

Cincinnati no competition

FC Cincinnati v NYCFC
Sunday, 00:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

There was a period when I started to believe that a briefly resurgent FC Cincinnati team would be worth supporting, but that theory soon came crashing down around my ears, and now, despite a battling draw at the Columbus Crew last time, I think that they'll struggle at home once more.

Cincinnati have won just three home games all season in MLS, and since the third of those, against the Houston Dynamo at the beginning of July, they have lost three in a row. NYCFC are a significantly superior side, and despite losing their last two away games, at RSL and Atlanta, they shouldn't be starting here at 2.01/1.

Dome Torrent's side trounced Cincinnati 5-2 at Yankee Stadium earlier in the campaign, and they come here needing the win, as they drop dangerously close to the post season line. I think this is a case of one team being clearly superior to the other, and when the price allows, supporting them becomes a fairly simple decision.

Quakes shake up Kansas

Sporting KC v San Jose Earthquakes
Sunday, 01:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sporting KC have lost four of their last five MLS games, and have now dropped ten points behind the play off line in the West. That last post season place is currently occupied by the San Jose Earthquakes, who come here looking for the kind of strong showing that can cement their post season ambitions.

It's been a real shocker of a season for SKC, which not too many people saw coming, and their home form has let them down badly. They've won only once here since the May 26, losing their other four games in that time, and San Jose will arrive here with bags of confidence. If RSL and FC Dallas can come here and win, then the Earthquakes most definitely are able to follow suit.

I know that San Jose lost at Colorado last time, but they have won six of their last nine MLS games, and with a trip to LAFC to come next week will be acutely aware of how important victory here would be when it comes to the post season shake up. I'm confident that they can the job done against a team that is short of form and confidence.

2019 P/L

Staked: 66.00 points
Returned: 73.40 points
P/L: + 7.40 points

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Recommended bets

Back Over 3.5 Goals in RSL v LAFC @ 2.47/5
Back NYCFC to beat FC Cincinnati @ 2.01/1
Back San Jose Earthquakes to beat Sporting KC @ 3.613/5