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MLS Betting: All to play for in Decision Day drama

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Giancarlo Gonzalez and the LA Galaxy are roaring their way into the playoffs
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The LA Galaxy won't let another opportunity slip in Houston, says Dave Farrar, who is also backing Colorado Rapids at a 'ridiculous price' and a Portland knockout blow for the 'Quakes...

“There’s much still to be resolved, as MLS’s new and more brutal post season system means that every place in the table is absolutely key.”

Galaxy won't fail again

Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy
Sunday, 21:00

It's 'Decision Day' in MLS, which means drama and bedlam and normally a few high scoring games. There's much still to be resolved, as MLS' new and more brutal post season system means that every place in the table is absolutely key.

The LA Galaxy threw away three points against Vancouver last week as they suffered an extraordinary home defeat, but a win at Houston Dynamo could still guarantee them a home draw in the post season, and they'll treat this as a must win game.

And they should win it. Last week felt like a case of them losing focus and failing badly, and I don't think that they'll make the same mistake again. They couldn't have chosen a much better opponent than Houston, who are second bottom in the West and in desperate form.

The Dynamo have won only twice since the middle of July, and while both of those wins were in Texas, the Galaxy should be far too good and far too motivated for them here.

Houston may have lost only three games here all season, but in what should be an epic shoot out, I think that they'll make it four here.

Rapids running wild

LAFC v Colorado Rapids
Sunday, 21:00

LAFC are going for the MLS points record this weekend as they prepare for what they hope will be a triumphant post season, and a win will mean that they break NYRB's mark from last term.

Standing in their way are the Colorado Rapids, who have put together a remarkable run of five wins in six games to take themselves to the brink of the playoffs, and while they need results elsewhere to go their way, they can give themselves a chance with a victory here.

Should Colorado make it, they'll be a live danger away from home in the post season, and they're a live danger here as well. They beat LAFC earlier in the season, and there's no question that the level of Bob Bradley's team has dropped in recent weeks as they look beyond the end of the regular season.

LAFC have won only one of their last seven, and if you believe that they can turn the style on and off and overpower the Rapids, then they'll be your bet. But I love the form of Robin Fraser's side, love the fact that a lesser version of this Rapids team beat LAFC earlier in the season, and love the fact that Colorado are [9.0] to get the win that could keep their season alive. That's a ridiculous price, and we have to take a chance on it.

Quakes have crumbled

Portland Timbers v San Jose Earthquakes
Sunday, 21:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Both Portland and San Jose are gunning for the post season, with the Timbers starting Decision Day in 6th, two points clear of the 'Quakes in 8th. The Timbers can still blow it if they lose this, and their struggles at SKC last week suggest that they may falter with San Jose.

The 'Quakes have lost form at completely the wrong time, though, and are limping towards the end of the regular season. They've lost five straight games, and have now lost their last six in a row on the road. A packed Providence Park is not the place to turn that run of form around, and I favour the Timbers in this one.

Portland are [2.06] to emerge with the win that will guarantee them the playoffs, and they have now won six in a row against the 'Quakes at home, scoring twelve and conceding just two. Their recent form means that we can back them at odds against, and I think that we should take advantage. San Jose look a busted flush, who will look back on a season of what-could-have-beens.

2019 P/L

Staked: 84.00 points
Returned: 90.16 points
P/L: + 6.16 points

Dave Farrar,

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