Lee Dixon: Villa to build on City win with derby draw

Lee Dixon
28 September 2012

Paul Lambert will use the defeat of Man City as a confidence booster

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Aston Villa haven't quite got revving yet but a Capital One Cup win at Manchester City is an undoubted positive, says Lee Dixon, and the Claret and Blues can check their near neighbour's early season progress on Sunday afternoon

"Villa will want to build on that result at City, the Baggies won’t want to throw away what has been a good start and there’s local passion and pride at stake."

Back the draw @ 3.412/5

Fourth meets 14th when these local rivals meet on Sunday afternoon but it's the Baggies who are flying high while Villa are languishing after some indifferent results.

West Brom have had a fantastic start to the season and Steve Clarke appears to have built well on the foundations left by Roy Hodgson. It's been more revolution than evolution at Villa with Paul Lambert signing a number of lower league and foreign players to dismantle the remains of the Alex McLeish era.

With three wins in five compared to Villa's one in the same number of games, Clarke's approach has had the more immediate success and the odds reflect that - Villa are 2.56/4 to take all three points, West Brom 3.211/5 and the draw 3.412/5.

For me, the longest price of the three is the bet in what is Sunday's only Premier League fixture.

These are early days for Lambert and, as with any new manager, we can expect a few bumps along the way. Last weekend's 4-1 defeat at Southampton is pretty ugly whichever way you look at it, but a midweek win over a strong enough Manchester City side in the Capital One Cup can only be a positive. Lambert has a young group of players and that sort of result can really pull them together and cement team spirit.

After some up and down years West Brom look like they are turning into a proper Premier League outfit, and that should be taken as a compliment. All their league wins have been at home with their last trip ending in a comprehensive defeat at Craven Cottage, however, so we can safely say they are not the finished article quite yet.

It's a tricky one to call but do you know what? I think we could be in for a bit of a humdinger here.

It's a local derby, and I'm old fashioned enough to think that should still matter to players as much as it does the fans. I know what it's like to line up for Arsenal at Tottenham and it was the sort of match that really got the juices flowing. Villa will want to build on that result at City, the Baggies won't want to throw away what has been a good start and there's local passion and pride at stake.

There may be only one game on Sunday but it's could well be better than you think. Enjoy!

Michael Cox says...

"I’ve been impressed with West Brom so far this season, but their three wins have come in home fixtures, and their two matches on the road have both been disappointing performances, with a fortunate 1-1 at Spurs and a 3-0 defeat at Everton. I think this game could be a little scrappy with neither side really taking the game to the opposition, and a draw might be on the cards. Therefore, I think 3.15 is a little low for West Brom to win this game, and I’ll lay them at that price."

Alan Thom

"I like Lee’s comments about this being “a bit of a humdinger”. I think both teams are capable of scoring, and four of the last six meetings at Villa Park have ended 2-1 or 1-2. Both teams have only failed to score once this season, Aston Villa in their opening day defeat against West Ham and West Brom in their defeat away at Fulham. Both teams to score is an option but is short @ 1.7, I would prefer to go for over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 and then get that stake back by backing one of Lee’s draw results 1-1 @ 7.2 as a saver in the correct score market."