Lee Dixon: Victory assured but Roy knows big tests are to come

Lee Dixon
07 September 2012

Good luck, Roy!

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England begin their journey on the road to World Cup 2014 in Moldova where we really ought to see a comfortable win for the Three Lions. Lee Dixon looks at Friday night's game and he's backing Roy's boys to bring three points home...

"England can’t lose this game. If they do, we might as well give up!"

Back England to win to nil @ 2.3411/8

Even with a depleted forward line England will beat Moldova, and they will do so handsomely.

That doesn't mean scoring a bucketful of goals, but a solid victory without conceding will represent a job well done from our first World Cup 2014 qualifying match.

I'm about to sit down for the DVD of Moldova v Hungary - thanks, ITV! - but without watching that we already know that this is a gentle introduction to the qualifying campaign for Roy Hodgson. Moldova are 141st in the world rankings, and finished one place above minnow's minnow San Marino in Group E when comprehensively failing to reach Euro 2012. There were a couple of notable results in that campaign, with the Dutch restricted to a pair of 1-0 wins but there's nothing for England to fear. Even the stadium is a tiddler with just a 10,500 capacity so it shouldn't be too inhospitable for England.

Hodgson has had a relatively gentle introduction to life as England manager. Coming into the job as late as he did meant the press were never going to get on his back too badly during the Euros, even when we went out in poor fashion, dominated by Italy and lucky to take the game to penalties.

This is different. England have always qualified well, and Roy has had plenty of time to prepare for the coming campaign, so he'll have to live up to that.

I'll be interested to see what formation Roy opts for in Moldova. After some experimenting from Fabio Capello, we reverted to the 4-4-2 at the Euros and I thought it was a backward step. We were over-run in the midfield too often, with not enough men in there to compete. After a reasonable start against Italy at Euro 2012 (we'll ignore last month's friendly) we were dominated with Andrea Pirlo in particular highlighting the gulf in class. Fantastic though he was at Euro 2012, Steven Gerrard is not getting any younger and I feel we need more numbers in the midfield.

We had a wealth of attacking talent upfront back at Euro 2012, but that certainly isn't the case now. None of Jermain Defoe, Danny Wellbeck or Daniel Sturridge are automatic first choice selections for their clubs and we just look a little light in that department. Nevertheless, Defoe has been amongst the goals in recent weeks and I suspect he'll register for England should he get the nod. It's a cliché but it seems to fit with Jermain that he's at his most dangerous when confident. I see him as the man to profit against the home defence.

When it comes to the crunch, however, the big questions about formation and team selection are for another day as this really should be comfortable for the Three Lions. They can't lose this game. If they do, we might as well give up!

Recommended Bets
Back England to win to nil @ 2.3411/8
Back England to lead at HT @ 1.84/5
Back Jermain Defoe to score @ evens (if he starts)

Michael Cox says...

Like Lee, I can’t see England slipping up in Moldova, and I think they might win by a decent scoreline. Roy Hodgson’s organised, rigid style of football means the attacking players rarely get the chance to play with freedom and express themselves in the final third, but I think this match will be a slight exception. If England get an early goal, Moldova will have to come out and fight, and that will play into the hands of forwards like Danny Welbeck, Jermain Defoe and Daniel Sturridge, who all have pace. The possibility of goals means I’m surprised to see over 2.5 goals available at around 1.96.

Alan Thompson says...

As Lee points out Moldova’s FIFA World Ranking puts them just above San Marino, but the same rankings also put England as the third best team in the word so I think we can disregard that stat. While Moldova only finished ahead of San Marino in the EURO2012 qualifiers, they did score six times against them and kept two clean sheets in their meetings. They also held the top scorers in qualifying “the Netherlands” to only two 1-0 victories in the group. The prices are very short for my liking, but if you like Lee’s suggestion of England to be leading at HT @ 1.8, you might want to take a look at the England Half Time/England Full Time market where I wouldn’t take any less than 1.9. If England are ahead at HT then surely they will go on and win the game.