Lee Dixon: Vermaelen to help Arsenal to regulation home win

Lee Dixon
03 May 2012

Thomas Vermaelen is deadly in the air

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Norwich may just have ran out of a little bit of steam at this stage of the season and that should provide Arsenal with a chance to pick up another three points. Goal-scoring defender Thomas Vermalen is one to keep an eye, says Lee Dixon.

The stats suggest under 3.5 goals shouldn’t be an even money shot and I agree.

Back under 3.5 goals @ 2.0

Match Odds

Norwich are going through something that happens to a lot of newly-promoted clubs. Having guaranteed their stay in the Premier League a few weeks back, they've suffered something of a late-season lull. The Canaries have lost their last four and going back a bit further, it's just one win from their last 11 in the league. In fairness to them, it's not for the want of trying. I think it's just fatigue kicking in. Paul Lambert will be hammering it into his players that he wants to finish as high up in the table as possible and that two points from their last two matches could allow them to move a couple of places up the table which equates to some decent money in the Norwich coffers. I'm not too sure a trip to the Emirates is the sort of fixture they'd want up next though.

As for Arsenal, they'll want to be sure of a top three finish rather than counting on Bayern to give them a helping hand in the Champions League by beating Chelsea. Having worked so hard to recover after that awful start to the season, it would be criminal if the Gunners fell at the last hurdle. I don't think they will and I have a feeling this could be quite comfortable for them. A home win to nil is my first bet of the match at 2.35/4.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

I've already said I don't think Norwich will score and I'm not too sure Arsenal are going to goal-crazy either. We have to go back ten matches in the league to find the last time they were involved in a game that had four or more goals (their 5-2 win over Spurs). Norwich have had a couple admittedly, that big 6-1 home defeat to Manchester City and a 2-2 draw with Everton but that's just two from their last 11.

The stats suggest under 3.5 goals shouldn't be an even money shot and I agree. A 2-0 or 3-0 win looks about right but I like a straightforward back of under 3.5 at 2.01/1.

To Score

All eyes on Robin van Persie as ever but we're not going to get rich backing him. Thomas Vermaelen is the team's fourth-highest scorer with six goals which is remarkable for a man who plays centre-back and one who missed seven matches in a row through injury earlier on in the campaign. Deadly in the air from corners and with a taste for the odd long-range free-kick, the Belgian defender looks a decent bet at around 7.06/1.

2 pts Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 2.35/4
2 pts Back under 3.5 goals @ 2.01/1
1 pt Back Thomas Vermaelen to score at anytime @ 6.05/1

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