Lee Dixon: Relegation-threatened Villa offer little threat to second-placed City

Lee Dixon
02 March 2013

Mancini may spring a selection surprise but the outcome should still be the same

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The title fight looks over but City aren't about to take their hang up their gloves and should ease past Aston Villa on Monday night, says Lee Dixon

"Ordinarily in a fixture like this you might give the home side a squeak but Villa have been almost as bad in front of their own fans as they have on the road!"

Back City to win 3-0 @ 14.013/1 and 4-0 @ 24.023/1

Manchester City did a very professional job on Chelsea last weekend and it's extremely hard to argue with the Betfair market which has them at 1.548/15 to defeat Aston Villa on Monday night.

The champions needed a reaction to the Southampton defeat and they got that last Sunday. Villa gave Arsenal a fright the day before but eventually succumbed to the 13th defeat of a tough season.

I talked last week of City's need to go on a long winning streak and they look ready to do that. No-one is predicting a slip-up from the leaders - now 1.051/20 to win the Premier League - but as long as City perform week-in, week-out they will give themselves a chance while fending off the chasing pack.

Villa are a young side and Paul Lambert has a hell of a fight to keep them believing as the season comes to its conclusion. I have to say I really fear for these Premier League stalwarts. Competition is fierce down there and they need a very swift turnaround in fortunes but the collateral damage of a long dispiriting season could take its toll. Wigan are experienced relegation battlers while Saints have been putting together some decent results for a while now. Villa might just be doomed.

Ordinarily in a fixture like this you might give the home side a squeak but Villa have been almost as bad in front of their own fans as they have on the road! Despite boasting the league's most in-form striker - Christian Benteke has six in seven this year - they don't score many, with only QPR fans seeing fewer goals.

I was impressed by City last weekend and I can see them winning without even conceding. Roberto Mancini pulled a tactical surprise on us all by playing Jack Rodwell against Chelsea and he's very hard to second guess, but whether it really matters is debatable as the personnel is so impressive throughout the squad.

In a sense, with the title battle as good as lost, the heat is off City now and the real fight is to secure second place. At 1.171/6 to do that, the Betfair market is an accurate barometer of their chances and I don't think they'll mess that one up.

I certainly don't see any upsets occurring at Villa. I was successful with a 13.012/1 correct score bet on Tuesday night so let's play that tactic again. The City backline has been impressive while the attack is potent - 0-3 @ 14.013/1 and 0-4 @ 24.023/1 it is.

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

"I agree fully with Lee about City's chances here. Aston Villa have a tendency to concede multiple goals in games, and while City haven't scored as many as last season, or as many as Manchester United this season, they'll surely put away a couple at Villa Park. In fact, 'a couple' is the key - City have won three of their last six league games 2-0. They thrashed Villa 5-0 in the reverse fixture, but big wins have been rare this season. Backing 2-0, at 8.6, makes sense - and there's a decent chance you'll be able to lay it off, if City look like scoring more."

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

"Let’s face it the title race is over, but it was good to see City winning their first league match in four attempts last week when they defeated Chelsea 2-0 at the Etihad. That result ended a terrible run for City in the league that saw them lose to Southampton and draw with QPR and Liverpool. I agree with Lee I don’t see City slipping up again and they will want to tighten their grip on second place.

"Villa though also have plenty to play for as they try to avoid being relegated for the first time in 26 years. However, this young Villa side could be in for a torrid evening on Monday night. When they have faced top four opposition so far this season they lost every game, conceding 22 goals and scoring only twice. Lee has gone for a high scoring City win to nil and I can’t disagree with that, rather than play in the correct score market though I am going into the Asian Handicap market to back Man City -1 & -1.5 @ anything over 2.1."