Terrible pitch, untried central defensive partnership, confident opposition - all the ingredients are there for an upset ahead of England's key Group H clash with Montenegro on Tuesday night.
The Betfair market has England at odds-on, but this looks far trickier than that and the hosts can smell blood, talking up their chances in the build-up.
But I think Roy Hodgson's men have enough about them to gain at least a point from this fixture. And if they can leave Podgorica without losing they should view that as a job well done because, believe me, it's not going to be an easy night for the Three Lions.
I've been down to the stadium and checked the pitch and it is an absolute shocker. There's been talk about watering it but that sounds crazy to me. There are plenty of bare patches, especially around the corners and penalty areas, and bobbly passes seem certain. It's not one for the nervous player, let's put it that way.
And nerves could be an issue for the away team. In Joleon Lescott and Chris Smalling, England have a pair of central defenders who have rarely played together for the national team and, more importantly perhaps, have not featured particularly often for their clubs this year.
In that respect it was good that the pair played together against San Marino, however easy the game was. They will have talked for the full 90 minutes and it will have been a good learning experience for them. Just sitting next to each other in the changing room before the game and at halftime will have been positive for the partnership.
Given the relative inexperience of the central defensive partnership I expect Hodgson to be quite cautious and set the team up rather defensively. I suspect we'll see a midfield of James Milner, Tom Cleverley and Steven Gerrard with either Michael Carrick or Scott Parker screening. Wayne Rooney will sit in the hole and Danny Welbeck will offer plenty of running upfront and in wide areas.
That should provide enough protection for the back four which will be facing plenty of threat from Montenegro's dangerous all-Serie A forward line of Stevan Jovetic and Mirko Vucinic.
With those two in the side I do fancy the home team to score. There'll be a 14,000 capacity crowd in the arena, and even though that's a relatively small attendance they will create a feverish atmosphere. That, combined with the dodgy pitch, should produce a scrappy game but I do think we'll get at least a goal for either side. That may interest backers of both teams to score at a shade over evens.
These two teams have met twice before and both times it has finished as a draw. As I have said, a point on the night should be enough for Hodgson especially as Montenegro are still to come to Wembley. Let's back the 1-1 final score with a cover bet on 2-1 to either side should there be a late goal.
Back 1-1 @ 8.27/1, 1-2 @ 10.09/1 and 2-1 @ 21.020/1