Lee Dixon: Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle - race for fourth

Lee Dixon
11 May 2012

Will Arsenal wave farewell to RVP this summer?

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The battle for fourth and third spot has been ferocious this season and, as the final day approaches, Lee Dixon selects bets for the games involving the two north London giants and the north east's surprise package...

In what could be his final match in the red and white, I expect RVP to find the net...

West Brom v Arsenal

Recommended Bet
Back 1-2 @ 9.28/1

Tottenham v Fulham

Recommended Bet
Back 1-0 @ 9.28/1

Everton v Newcastle

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.7511/4

West Brom v Arsenal

Will Roy Hodgson round off his fine reign at West Brom with a win that would give Harry Redknapp, the man he pipped for the England job, something to smile about? On recent form, it could happen and I am slightly surprised to see the Baggies as long as 5.69/2.

As Opta note, West Brom have lost just one of their last six Premier League games while Arsenal have won none of their last four. They looked vulnerable in last weekend's 3-3 draw with Norwich. Three goals against the Gunners at home? It would never have happened in my day. Shane Long and James Morrison will be keen to bamboozle the Arsenal defence the way that Grant Holt and Steve Morison managed to.

A win for the Baggies would give them a top half finish, a tremendous achievement when you consider Hodgson came in to fight relegation. I still think Arsenal will win this though Arsenal have recovered more points from losing positions than any other team in the Premier League and could envisage a come from behind away win. Robin van Persie scored again against Norwich and, in what could be his final match in the red and white, I'll back him to find the net and wrap up that Premier League top scorer bet I placed at the season's start.

Recommended Bet
Back 1-2 @ 9.28/1

Tottenham v Fulham

Whereas Arsenal made a terrible start, Tottenham's problems began towards the end of the campaign. Some observers applauded their spirit in carving out a 1-1 draw against Villa when they were down to ten last weekend. I think they should have won the game. Prior to that, they'd earned two decent away wins to reignite their challenge for Champions League football.

Martin Jol is a nice guy and I'd be surprised if revenge was a factor in his desire for Fulham to beat Spurs. The Cottagers have been victorious in their last two and, following steady progress in their first season under Jol, they could finish seventh. However, Opta remind us that they have a terrible record against Spurs, losing the last four league fixtures between the teams.

I expect a close game with Fulham prepared to be patient and Tottenham struggling to find their rhythm in attack. Emmanuel Adebayor relies on Rafael van der Vaart and Luka Modric to play him in but, if Fulham's industrious midfielders can disrupt the supply, home fans will be keeping a close eye on events at Goodison Park. A frightening stat tells Spurs fans that they have lost three of their last four final day fixtures. As it happens, I think they will have just about enough to edge this one.

Recommended Bet
Back 1-0 @ 9.28/1

Everton v Newcastle

Newcastle have been the surprise package of the season, to say the least. They wowed us with excellent football, built a strong spine and even managed to bounce back when it looked like they'd been found out mid-season. Alan Pardew might not have initially seemed like an inspiring appointment but he's returned the fans' reservations with interest.

The race for fourth (or even third) place is tantalising. If "deserving" counts for anything in football then you'd look at Newcastle's resources, compared to the teams above them, and say that, for the way they've gone about the campaign, and the shrewd signings Pardew has made, they deserve to finish in the Champions League places.

But Goodison Park is a tough place to visit. Everton are in seventh place, one point above their neighbours and, if they could play as well before Christmas as they have since January - winning against Manchester City and Chelsea as well as drawing 4-4 at Old Trafford - they'd be challenging for a top four spot too. Opta tell us that they're unbeaten in their last eight and I don't expect them to sign off with a defeat.

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