Inter Milan are in a bad way at present and second-placed Napoli, led by Edinson Cavani, should enjoy themselves in this Sunday night fixture which can be watched on Betfair Live Video
"I can’t let Bologna go unbacked at bigger than 5-1."
Fiorentina v Roma
With games against three sides at the wrong end of the table to come, Vincenzo Montella and Fiorentina know just how huge Saturday night's match in Florence could prove. If they beat Roma, then they're in with a great chance of scraping ahead of Milan into third with a winning end to the season.
La Viola have won their last three matches, and have scored in each of their last ten Serie A games, with their average of 2.4 goals per game over that period the best in the division. With Stefan Jovetic struggling with injury, their inspiration has been Adem Llajic, who has contributed an incredible seven goals and four assists over those ten games, and who is in the form of his life. Fiorentina are [1.98] to get the win though, and I think that might be reading just a little bit too much into their recent form. Roma have turned into an excellent side under Aurelio Andreazzoli, and they have conceded just 16 goals since the departure of Zdenek Zeman. Andreazzoli has them playing with controlled entertainment, and that's the style that suits Roma best.
Roma looked good last week as they demolished Siena, and while I can't see them winning in Florence, I fancy them to come away with a draw. They have beaten Fiorentina twice already this season and certainly won't be bothered by their excellent home record. Jovetic will start for La Viola, but they'll miss Stefan Savic at the back and I'm happy to back the draw at a generous looking [4.0]
Back Draw in Fiorentina v Roma @ [4.0]
Napoli v Inter
On the face of it, this looks like a real glamour fixture, but regular viewers of Serie A will know all too well just how much Inter's star has fallen. When Andrea Stramaccioni's team beat Napoli back in December, they went second in the table, but a dire end to the season has seen them fall away, and they'll need to finish well to even make the top eight.
Unfortunately for us, the rest of the world has caught up with just how bad Inter have become, and so Napoli are trading at [1.46] for the win that they're very likely to get. Javier Zanetti became the most recent, and the most heartbreaking, addition to Inter's injury list last week, and so their squad is down to worse than the bare bones.
I can't see any way that Inter will escape from San Paolo with anything other than a heavy defeat, and with Edinson Cavani back in the side they could dish out a real beating. Napoli showed last week against Pescara that they have learned how to win games without Cavani, and have goalscoring options elsewhere (notably Blerim Dzemaili).
So it's a question now of how we support Napoli in this one. I'm keen to have a small bet on "Any Unquoted" in the Correct Score market. If you can get matched at around the [5.8] mark then that should give you a run for your money, and have a look as well at supporting Napoli in the Inter +1 and Inter + 2 markets.
The evening may end up laced with regret: for Inter that the season should finish so poorly, and for Napoli that their mid season loss of form cost them a real chance of the Scudetto. With Cavani almost certainly gone in the summer, they may never have a better opportunity.
Lazio v Bologna
This is the time of the season when you have to start being careful in Serie A. Bologna are [6.2] to win at Lazio this weekend and normally that would look like sensational value, but there's been a sense with them of playing from memory in recent weeks, and that's probably what has pushed their price to where it is. Lazio haven't won since the end of March, and their slide down the table has mirrored that of Inter.
They've looked uninspired in front of goal despite the return of Miroslav Klose, and there's certainly nothing here that will trouble Bologna. Stefano Pioli has proved himself an excellent coach this season, and he is now being rightly linked with a series of top jobs.
I think that he'll be very keen for his team to end the season on a high, and finish in the top ten, while, if we're worried about Bologna's motivation, we should maybe remember that Lazio's European chances could now rest on the Rome derby Cup Final, and their players might be forgiven for casting a distant eye to that fixture.
Either way, Bologna have just about a fully fit squad for this, and have already shown that they can pick up big away wins, at Roma, Napoli and Inter. They have drawn their last five games, and with Lazio trading at [1.65] laying them is an option. But I'm sticking with my initial feeling that I can't let Bologna go unbacked at bigger than 5-1, and so they're my selection.
Bologna to beat Lazio @ [6.2]