Serie A Tips: Milan pounce on Immobile-less Lazio

Lazio forward Ciro Immobile
Lazio are going to struggle without top scorer Ciro Immobile against Milan

Dave Farrar predicts Lazio will struggle without top scorer Ciro Immobile, while Sassuolo and Inter keep churning out the overs...

“They’re tired, they’re without their most inspirational player, and they’re facing a Milan team who have come back from the break in the season with renewed focus.”

No Immobile, no party

Lazio v Milan
Saturday, 20:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Lazio have been clinging on to Juventus's coat tails, but I just wonder if this weekend might be the time that they lose their grip. They're without the suspended Ciro Immobile and his natural replacement Felipe Caicedo, and against both Fiorentina and Torino this hectic schedule appeared to be catching up with their small squad.

They're tired, they're without their most inspirational player, and they're facing a Milan team who have come back from the break in the season with renewed focus, beating Lecce and Roma before being held in a strange game by SPAL. Milan have their gaze set firmly on 5th place, and as Roma falter they may just have a chance of making up the gap.

For Stefano Pioli there's extra motivation, as he's up against one of his old clubs here, and his Milan team is a long way from perfect, but they're playing a side who might just be on the brink of folding, and who will be missing the League's top goalscorer for the first time in a Serie A game this season. Milan look too big to me at 3.39/4.

Inevitable Overs

Sassuolo v Lecce
Saturday, 18:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Having resumed this Serie A season nearly 7 points in debit, I'm delighted that we've nearly managed to claw our way into profit, but we're not there yet, and mustn't revel too much in a strong restart, as there is still much that can go wrong.

Sassuolo have been good to us of late as they have tried to blast their way out of trouble, largely successfully. Their first 4 games since the resumption have now featured 21 goals, and Roberto De Zerbi has clearly stayed true to the way that he wants to play. Open, entertaining and full of goals, and he meets a like-minded coach this weekend in Fabio Liverani and his Lecce team.

I suggested as the season began again that Lecce had a chance of survival, and even though they have now lost five Serie A games in a row, they are still only a point from safety. The form of Genoa has seen to that, and Udinese's struggles give Liverani's team a chance as well.

The defeat at the Via Del Mare against Sampdoria on Wednesday night was a crushing blow for Lecce, and somehow Liverani has to lift his team ahead of what is another winnable game. And they have to start winning to have any chance at all.

Because Sassuolo are unlikely to change the way that they play, and because Lecce will throw everything at De Zerbi's team, I think there'll be goals, and so will trust these two to deliver at a price that is just about long enough.

Conte out to entertain

Inter v Bologna
Sunday, 16:15
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Having been critical of Inter for pretty much the whole of 2020, I have to say that I was really impressed by the way that they took Brescia apart on Wednesday. It was 90 minutes of forensic brilliance, and Antonio Conte's side look set for a strong few weeks. Not enough to win them the title, but more than enough to make them worth watching.

They face a Bologna team who have looked a little lacklustre since the season resumed, although the win at Sampdoria was a good one, but Sinisa Mihajlovic's competitive instincts will be enlivened by this challenge. How can his side stop Inter?

To think that they tore Brescia to pieces without Romelu Lukaku or Christian Eriksen in the starting line-up gave us a good idea of the fluency of their squad, and with those two fresh and seemingly certain to play, Inter will be out to enjoy themselves.

And that was the key for me in midweek. So often I have watched Inter and felt the pressure that they were under, seen the tautness of facial expressions and stiffness of muscles, On Wednesday, they were loose and laughing, and that spells danger for the rest. Maybe they know that the title is gone, and feel that now is the time to turn on the style.

If that is the case, then they'll remain vulnerable defensively (especially without Milan Skriniar) and will pose a devastating threat going forward. I think that Bologna will score, but will do some conceding too. Over 3.5 goals here are too big at 2.915/8.

Dave’s Serie A P/L – 2019/20

Staked: 81 Points
Return: 80.87 points
P/L: -0.13 points

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