Serie A Tips: Exhilarating Rome derby and goals in Inter-Juventus

Roma striker Edin Dzeko
Edin Dzeko is bound to be on target in the Rome Derby

Dave Farrar predicts plenty of goals and pyrotechnics when Capital rivals Lazio and Roma go head-to-head, while the Derby d'Italia is a Scudetto thriller...

“What should be a highly significant Serie A weekend kicks off with the first ever Rome derby to be played on a Friday, and there may just be pyrotechnics to get us underway”

Overs in Rome

Lazio v Roma
Friday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

What should be a highly significant Serie A weekend kicks off with the first ever Rome derby to be played on a Friday, and there may just be pyrotechnics to get us underway.

Roma lie third in the table after their hard fought 2-2 draw against Inter last week, and there are still those who believe in a Roma title challenge. I suspect that they're just short of that, but along with Atalanta, they're one of the great attractions of the League. They're easy on the eye, and in Henrikh Mkhitaryan they one of Serie A's most watchable creators.

Only Inter and Atalanta have scored more Serie A goals than Roma this season, and with the propensity of Paulo Fonseca's team to concede (26 and counting) I think that this will be a high scoring game at the Olimpico once again.

Seven of Roma's last eight games in all competitions have featured at least four goals, and while Lazio have been a little more circumspect this season than they were in the last campaign, they come here off the back of consecutive wins, and we know all about the threat they carry in front of goal. A confident Lazio tends to be a dangerous Lazio.

I have a feeling that Roma may just edge this, and they're trading in the Match Odds market at 2.486/4, but I like the look of the 2.6413/8 that's available on there being over 3.5 goals.

Exciting Derby d'Italia

Inter v Juventus
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

There'll surely be goals too at San Siro as Inter host Juventus. Juve have become extremely hard to read, and I can't remember a more confusing series of performances than their last three. A glorious win at Milan, a match that they controlled and emerged from with great credit, and then two bizarrely lacklustre displays against Sassuolo and then Genoa in the Coppa Italia.

I appreciate that personnel changes have something to do with a drop in performance, but that win at the League leaders looked to be a sign that Juve were about to go on a powerful run, and were potentially about to take over the League that they have dominated for the last nine years. After watching them subsequently, I wouldn't be so sure.

Juve look massive at 3.02/1 for the win, and it would be just like them to go to San Siro twice in a fortnight and beat both Milan AND Inter, but I couldn't recommend them with any confidence, against an Inter team that is capable of such brilliance, and yet of such underachievement.

Inter's defeat against Sampdoria ten days ago was inexplicably bad, they then threw away a late lead against Roma, and for all Antonio Conte's efforts to turn them in to something else, they remain "Pazza Inter", or "crazy Inter". The kind of team that you love to watch, but not the kind that wins titles too often, especially in Italy.

I could see either result, but couldn't tip either team with confidence in the Match Odds market, but I am at least confident that there'll be goals. Neither side can defend as well as they might when under pressure, both have absurd quality in forward areas. It will be worth watching, and yet may not tell us a great deal.

Bet on Benevento

Crotone v Benevento
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Benevento have won their last two away games and shown much improved form, and yet they can be backed at 2.6413/8 for their visit to the worst team in Serie A in the shape of Crotone.

Benevento have indeed won three of their last five, with only Milan and Atalanta beating them in that run, and they are extremely well led by Pippo Inzaghi, a coach who will surely get one of the bigger Serie A jobs before too long.

With momentum favouring one newly promoted side, the form of the other points towards the visitors as well. Crotone have lost 12 of their 17 games this season, and simply haven't looked good enough, home or away. I know that they've won 2 of their last 3 home games, but they were against Spezia and then a dreadful Parma, and Inzaghi's team look a different proposition entirely.

In six previous League matches between these two, it's the home team who has always won, but I suspect that statistic will look somewhat different on Sunday evening. Benevento look rock solid to me at a decent price.

Dave’s Serie A P/L – 2020/21

Staked: 49 points
Returned: 49.69 points
P/L: +0.69 points

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