Dave Farrar predicts there will be yet more goals when Edin Dzeko and Romelu Lukaku face off, and also has predictions and bets for two more Serie A matches...
“This is the highest scoring fixture in the history of Serie A, and I think that there’ll be at least four more goals to add to the current tally of 503 in 174 games.”
Roma v Inter
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Inter's defeat at Sampdoria on Wednesday afternoon won't be the final twist in this title race, but it certainly felt like a significant one. Samp was meant to be three points safely in the bag for Antonio Conte, before leading his team into battle against two of the teams in direct competition with them. Juventus next weekend, and first, in form Roma.
Inter could, of course, bounce back and take a vast amount of heart from two epic displays in Rome and then at home in the Derby D'Italia.
Or it could be two defeats, and that familiar sound of the wheels coming off for the Nerazzurri.
This is a hard game to call, and I would favour Roma in the Match Odds market on price alone. They look a little big at 2.9215/8 for a team that has won five of its last six and has gone unbeaten at home for 12 games.
That said, the draw is a big runner here, as the two are closely matched, and the last five games between them have finished level. Tempted though I am by Roma, I'd rather play the goals market. Sometimes these big games can fail to live up to expectation, but the way that both Roma and Inter go about their business makes that unlikely. Six of Roma's last seven games in all competitions have had at least four goals, and with Inter both a constant threat and perpetually vulnerable, the cocktail is an enticing one.
This is the highest scoring fixture in the history of Serie A, and I think that there'll be at least four more goals to add to the current tally of 503 in 174 games.
Milan v Torino
Live on Betfair Live Video
I think that there'll be goals too at San Siro, as Milan look to bounce back from their first defeat since last March with a first of two meetings in a week against their old manager Marco Giampaolo and his Torino side.
Milan were well beaten in the end by Juve, and their squad looked stretched. They are the most spirited team in this League, and Stefano Pioli has done a remarkable job at San Siro, but they need to strengthen if they're to have any chance of sustaining a title challenge.
They also need to win this.
Losing to Juventus was nothing to be ashamed about, but the danger will come if that result leads to a slump that Milan can ill afford.
Pioli will impress that on his team and I think that we'll see a reaction here.
As well as their unbeaten record, Milan also saw their consecutive run of games in which they'd scored at least twice end at 17, three short of Bayern Munich's European record. I think that they'll be back to goalscoring form here as they look to impose their will on Torino, and a glance at Torino's record when they play the bigger clubs in the League makes interesting reading.
Giampaolo's team lost 4-3 against Lazio, 4-2 against both Inter and Atalanta, and 3-1 against Roma. Only against Juventus (2-1) and Napoli (1-1) did their games against the big boys fail to sparkle. They lift themselves for the big games, and given the way that they've dragged themselves out of the relegation zone in the last 10 days with a win and a draw, I think they'll have a go at Milan, with some success.
A game to sit back and savour, and to enjoy the fact that Over 3.5 Goals is as big as 2.915/8
D'Aversa not enough
Parma v Lazio
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
With Parma so poor in recent weeks, and Fabio Liverani inevitably sacked to bring back Roberto D'Aversa, Lazio should be able to pick up their second consecutive win with a successful trip to the Ennio Tardini.
The Ducali have now lost four games in a row, and they've been beaten more than comfortably in three of those, with only Crotone being pushed close. That makes the 2.26/5 which is available about Lazio to win giving away a goal head start an attractive bet.
Lazio beat Fiorentina last time, and look to be clicking into gear after what has been a stop start season for them. They remain in the Champions League, and are desperate to get back into that competition. Expect a strong second half of the season from them, and more consistent displays from Ciro Immobile. He has now scored in his last five, but hadn't quite looked himself this season until this current run began.
Parma haven't scored in their last five home games, just haven't looked threatening these last few weeks, and while I don't want to write off a side that did find some success under their old coach, they're still pretty toothless without injured Gervinho.
Lazio have won their last seven against Parma, and I think that they'll make it eight in a row, and do so convincingly enough for us to back them on the Asian Handicap.
Dave’s Serie A P/L – 2020/21
Staked: 46 points
Returned: 44.99 points
P/L: - 1.01 points
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Back Over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Inter @ 2.56/4
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Milan v Torino @ 2.915/8
Lazio -1 on Asian Handicap v Parma @ 2.26/5