Italian Serie A

Serie A Tips: Cup kings Atalanta can hold European hopefuls at 5/2

Gian Piero Gasperini
Atalanta will be celebrating their Europa League win on Sunday

Dan Fitch has tips for the final day of the Serie A season and he is expecting Atalanta to frustrate Torino, with European places and relegation at stake in the Italian top flight.

  • Europa League winners can frustrate Torino

  • Napoli need a win

  • Roma have nothing to play for against desperate Empoli

  • Go for goals and corners in relegation shootout

Atalanta v Torino (Sunday, 17:00)

There will be a lot on the line when the Europa League winners Atalanta host Torino on Sunday.

We are likely to witness a party atmosphere in Bergamo, as Atalanta fans celebrate the end to the club's 61-year wait for a trophy. Their unexpected 3-0 victory against Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday will have also been celebrated by all those associated with Roma, who can still qualify for the Champions League, if Atalanta finish fifth.

Torino have a similar situation to Roma, as they could qualify for the Europa Conference League, if Fiorentina win that competition and finish eighth or below. Having beaten AC Milan last weekend and now needing a win, Torino are rated as 11/102.11 favourites. That might be a slight overreaction to the circumstances. Back the draw at 5/23.50.

Napoli v Lecce (Sunday, 17:00)

Napoli still have a chance of moving above Torino and finishing ninth, if they can beat Lecce.

Torino are currently a point ahead of tenth-placed Napoli. If last season's Serie A champions can leapfrog Torino on the last day of the season, then they could scrape into the Europa Conference League. This will require Napoli to win and Torino to drop points, with the hosts having not tasted victory in their last six games (D4 L2).

In Napoli's favour is the fact that Lecce have nothing to play for and have lost their last two games, suffering defeats against Udinese and Atalanta. Lecce are the third lowest scorers in Serie A and you can back a Napoli win and under 3.5 goals at 5/42.25.

Empoli v Roma (Sunday, 19:45)

Later on Sunday, the final relegation place in Serie A will be decided, with Empoli needing to pull off a great escape against Roma.

Empoli are currently in the relegation zone in 18th place, but the good news for them is that they are in control of their own destiny. The two teams that they can catch are Frosinone and Udinese. As they are playing each other, a win will keep Empoli up, though they are currently without a victory in four games (D2 L2).

Roma will finish sixth regardless of the result and their season now rests on whether Atalanta will finish fifth. The odds reflect this, with Empoli as favourites, but it's hard to have too much faith in the hosts against more talented opponents. Let's back Empoli double chance and both teams to score at 1/12.00.

Frosinone v Udinese (Sunday, 19:45)

Defeat for either Frosinone or Udinese could condemn them to relegation to Serie B.

Frosinone are in the stronger position. They are two points clear of the relegation zone, so a draw would definitely be enough to keep them up, as they have a superior head-to-head record against Empoli. They are also in decent form, having only lost to Inter in their last eight games (W2 D5).

Udinese are unbeaten in four (W1 D3), but they have only won one of those games and they need a victory to ensure they stay up. With the result difficult to predict, combine both teams to score and over 10.5 corners at 13/82.63. These two sides both rank in the top six in Serie A, for the highest number of total corners-per-match this season.

Now read Paul's FA Cup Final Bet Builder tips here!

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