Serie A Tips: Back Atalanta to stun Napoli and Milan to upset Inter

Expect another titanic clash between Duvan Zapata and Kalidou Koulibaly
Duvan Zapata and Kalidou Koulibaly

Dave Farrar predicts La Dea and Rossoneri will continue their perfect starts to the season, while Sassuolo keep scoring...

"Atalanta have already shattered a couple of goalscoring records this season, having scored at least four times in each of their opening three games, and they look like a bit of value to me at the 13/82.68 mark"

Atalanta can amaze

Napoli v Atalanta
Saturday, 14:00
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Napoli will be raring to go at the San Paolo after they were sold down the river by both Lega Calcio and Juventus a fortnight ago, and their fans will hope that Atalanta are the ones to pay the price.

Gennaro Gattuso, though, gave an extremely honest interview after the 6-0 win against Genoa which had some good judges declaring that Napoli are a potential champion this season. The gist of it was: "be careful, everything we hit in that game went in, and don't read too much into these results."

I know that Gattuso is trying to deflect attention from his players and downplay any Neapolitan success, but I tend to agree with him. Napoli are an excellent side, but they're not as well rounded as the League leaders Atalanta, and will have to work unbelievably hard to even stay with Gian Piero Gasperini's side.

Atalanta have already shattered a couple of goalscoring records this season, having scored at least four times in each of their opening three games, and they look like a bit of value to me at the 13/82.68 mark. Napoli will struggle to stop them, can definitely hurt them, but on balance look likely to come off worse in what should be a high scoring game.

Gattuso's side are unbeaten in their last eight at home, and they've won seven of those, but that run is unlikely to last into Saturday evening.

Milan end Derby taboo

Inter v Milan
Saturday, 17:00
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

With Inter favoured by so many (including this column) to win Serie A this season, tipping them to win this weekend's Derby Della Madonnina feels like the instinctive thing to do, but logic suggests that it might make more sense to favour the Rossoneri on Saturday afternoon.

Inter have been hard hit by a COVID 19 outbreak, which means that they can still field a strong team, but will be missing Milan Skriniar and one or two others, including the suspended Stefano Sensi.

Inter have won the last four derbies, and that might seem to justify supporting them at 7/52.4, but I think that Stefano Pioli's Milan look big here at 11/53.15 to make it four wins out of four, even without Ante Rebic who is still suffering with that horrifically dislocated elbow.

Milan's form this season is such that you might have fancied them anyway, even without Inter's worries. They have won three games without conceding, and while you can talk about the opposition not being the strongest, no one has laid a glove on them, which is more than can be said for Conte's Inter, who have already conceded five against Fiorentina and Benevento, and were at times made to look ordinary by Lazio.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is back from his illness and has a good record against Inter, and in general I feel that Milan look big here. There's a chance that they could be blown away by a Lukaku/Lautaro thunderstorm, but if they can weather any early pressure, they're good enough, and well coached enough, to come away with a win.

Exciting Sassuolo

Bologna v Sassuolo
Sunday, 11:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Once again, Roberto De Zerbi and Sassuolo have started a season brightly, and they go into Matchday 4 in 3rd place in the Serie A table, having won their last two games by a 4-1 scoreline, and provided three excellent performers to the Italian national side over the last 10 days.

Manuel Locatelli, Mimmo Berardi and Ciccio Caputo will once again be centre stage here, and after six Serie A goals between them this season, they deserve to be.

De Zerbi's team visit Bologna this weekend, and after goals in their last two games, I think that we'll see more here. Bologna's only home game this season so far ended in a 4-1 win against Parma, and I think they're likely to fancy their chances of hurting Sassuolo here.

De Zerbi's side can certainly look vulnerable, but rather like Atalanta in Naples, I like their chances of carving out another win. Bologna have conceded in their last 36 Serie A matches, the longest run of any team in the top Five European Leagues since 1978, and I think that Sassuolo can extend that run, and grab a win at 7/52.44. The bet, though, will be over 3.5 goals at 6/42.5.

Dave’s Serie A P/L – 2020/21

Staked: 8 points
Returned: 4.22 points
P/L: - 3.88 points

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